At this point in the summer, all signs point to the Celtics staying below the luxury tax line for the 2026-27 season. They ducked the tax last season, and doing so again would allow them to reset the repeater tax, meaning that starting next summer, they can spend a lot more freely for the next few years and possibly even spend over the first or second apron again.
It’s a logical move that makes a lot of basketball sense beyond just saving the owners money, and they’ve managed to navigate the landscape pretty well so that the team, as currently constructed, has 14 players with just under $2 million to spare. They could give Dillon Mitchell the 15th spot while staying just under; they could roll with 14 guys on standard deals, or they could explore other options.
But with all the work they’ve done over the past year or so, it would seem crazy to make a splash now and go back over the tax, which would erase a lot of the work that Brad Stevens and his team have done. On the other hand, the Celtics aren’t hard-capped until the first apron. If there are truly no mandates at all from ownership, there’s a chance Brad can add another piece to the mix, and the arrows continue to point back to the Denver Nuggets.
Despite their best posturing, the Nuggets, as currently constructed, are staring at a monstrous luxury tax bill and a trip into the second apron if they re-sign Peyton Watson without trading a player away. I’m not convinced they’ll do that, and even if they have to ride this all the way to the trade deadline in February, I remain convinced that Denver will shed money, either by sign-and-trading Watson or moving Cam Johnson, Aaron Gordon, or Christian Braun.
And if and when they finally decide to go that route, if the Celtics are willing to pay the tax next season, they are in an excellent position to take advantage of Denver. The Nuggets’ chief goal will be saving money, which massively limits their options, as very few teams can actually take back significant salary.
Celtics could fit Cam Johnson or Peyton Watson into $27m TPE
The Celtics are still holding a $27+ million traded player exception from the Anfernee Simons deal, which doesn’t expire until February and would allow Boston to absorb any salary up to that amount without sending back the matching money. Watson is a restricted free agent, but I doubt he’ll get more than $27m a year, Johnson is on a $23.06m expiring deal, and Braun will make $21.6m in the first year of a five-year deal.
The thing is, the Celtics are already pretty loaded on the wing, and none of these players make a ton of sense. But Watson and Johnson would certainly be valuable additions who would fit right into the rotation immediately and make an impact.
On top of that, the move would let the Cs use the big Simons TPE before it expires. Even if it’s not a perfect player, it would occupy that salary slot and give the Celtics another trade asset, or more highly-coveted optionality moving forward. Denver will be the desperate team and the Celtics will be operating from a position of power, so there’s a real chance to make off like bandits in any potential trade negotiations.
At the end of the day, I still think the most likely outcome is that the Celtics simply let the TPE expire and stay under the tax again, but it’s not a foregone conclusion. And if they are open to spending, the Nuggets should certainly be a team to monitor.
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