As experts and analysts talk about the Celtics, we continue to hear this narrative that the team will be great in the regular season and rack up wins, but that they don’t have playoff equity after trading Jaylen Brown. I keep pushing back on this idea, as people are overindexing on the blown 3-1 lead last season, whereas for most of the last decade, they’ve been a team that perennially makes deep runs.
Besides, it’s not like Brown was carrying the team in the playoffs while the supporting cast let him down. If anything, JB struggled to keep the team afloat when Jayson Tatum sat, and his ability to take and make tough shots didn’t make up for his inefficient offense, ball-stopping, turnovers, and poor off-ball defense.
The NBA media may be slow to catch up to this, but the numbers aren’t, as proven by ESPN’s BPI, or Basketball Power Index. It’s a tool that uses data to project forward for teams based on players currently on the roster and projected to be available for the playoffs.
ESPN's BPI puts Boston in a 3-way fight for the East
BPI has the Celtics as the fourth-best regular-season team, second-best in the Eastern Conference behind just the Knicks, and the team with the fifth-best chance of winning the title. The metric has the Thunder and Spurs as massive favorites, giving them a 28% and 22% chance of winning it all, respectively.
But after that, it’s the 76ers with a 9% chance, the Knicks with an 8% chance, and the Celtics with a 7% chance. That may not sound like much, but it basically indicates that the East is a three-team race, with Philly, New York, and Boston being almost even.
When you factor in some human elements, like the Sixers relying on an oft-injured Joel Embiid and a 41-year-old LeBron James, plus the Knicks trying to be the first team to go back-to-back since the Warriors, it’s reasonable to say that the Celtics are right up there as the class of the conference.
Why Boston’s floor and ceiling are safer than rivals think
Maybe they’re not favorites, and maybe their ceiling isn’t as high as every team's, but this idea that they won’t be able to win once the playoffs start is crazy. The floor is very high, and they’ve got a great chance to be a high seed, which is half the battle. They should have home-court advantage and a favorable path.
That alone offers them a great opportunity, and if this team’s depth around its stars works out, they have plenty of upside without nearly as much risk as some of their main rivals in the East. Are the Knicks going to have another magical run? Are the Sixers really going to mesh and stay healthy? Is Kawhi going to channel 2019 Kawhi? Are the Pistons or Cavs going to take a huge playoff leap? Will the Pacers get back to where they were before Haliburton’s injury?
Every contender has major question marks. But it seems like the Celtics are the only team being held to this level of skepticism. It makes no sense, and it speaks to the standard that has been set during the Jayson Tatum era. Sure, last season had an ugly ending, but it’s a new year, and the Celtics are ready to bounce back in a major way and prove the doubters wrong.
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