One of the biggest reasons for hope with this season’s Celtics, and why it’s foolish to write off their chances of contending, is that Jayson Tatum has arguably been the best playoff player of this generation. In the last five postseasons combined, Tatum leads the NBA with a +439 net rating when he’s on the floor.
That number is 125 points better than the next-highest on-court differential, which is +312 for Chet Holmgren of the Thunder. Individual plus/minus can be a flawed stat, but when the sample size adds up, it’s hard to argue with the results.
And the numbers are clear: when Tatum is on the floor during the playoffs, the Celtics are a juggernaut. And this has played out year over year. Even last season, as he was recovering from a torn Achilles and Boston was blowing a 3-1 lead and bowing out in embarrassing fashion, the Celtics were +7.2 per 100 possessions when JT was on the court.
Tatum is a dynamic playmaker on both ends of the floor and has almost no weaknesses. He can adapt to almost any role on either end of the court, and his play is always additive. He can make an impact in just about any circumstance, and we’ve seen time and again how well it translates to the playoffs.
If the Celtics win the non-Tatum minutes, they'll win the championship
The key to success for Boston, come playoff time, is figuring out how to succeed in the handful of minutes when Tatum is on the bench. They weren’t able to do it in either of the past two seasons, and it cost them. In 2024, they got it done, and it led to a dominant championship run.
Part of the reason Jaylen Brown is no longer in Boston is that he wasn’t able to carry those minutes despite getting paid like a superstar. This season, Brad Stevens and the Celtics are betting on a deep supporting cast that is completely connected and bought into Joe Mazzulla’s system.
Keep in mind, this is a group that played better last season when Brown sat. If they can do that again, with Tatum taking on the Brown role and players like Paul George and Mitch Robinson added into the mix, there’s no reason this team can’t crank it up to a level we haven’t seen since the 2024 title run.
It’s easier said than done, but this front office and coaching staff have earned the benefit of the doubt, and they believe this is the best path for the team. The numbers back it up, and now we just have to see if it translates to the basketball court. If it does, the Celtics are going to smash expectations, and not just in the regular season.
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