It’s not quite disingenuous to just say that the Celtics traded Jaylen Brown for Paul George, 2 first-round picks, and 2 second-round picks, because that is the truth. But it doesn’t tell the whole story.
When teams deal away a star player in a picks-based deal, we always hear about the sheer number of picks. Generally, when a team trades for a star, that team expects to be very good, so in turn, their picks are expected to be pretty bad.
But the first-round picks that the Celtics got for JB are quite a bit different. The first one is the juiciest, and also the most confusing, which will be conveyed in 2028, when the Celtics already owe a swap to the Spurs (protected for the 1st overall pick) from the Derrick White trade. Barring a miracle, it’s safe to say that will be a bottom-5 pick.
All first-round picks aren't created equal
So, with this trade, the Celtics have the right to swap whichever pick is worse out of theirs and the Spurs for whichever pick is better from the 76ers or Clippers. The Sixers should at least be a playoff team with Brown, Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, and Joel Embiid, so that’s probably not the play.
What’s more likely is that Boston will get the Clippers’ first-round pick. LA has traded away Kawhi Leonard, James Harden, and Ivica Zubac in the last few months, and the franchise is entering a different phase. They’re clearly rebuilding around the recently drafted Keaton Wagler with some interesting players in Darius Garland and Brandon Ingram, plus a few intriguing prospects.
They added Rui Hachimura and may bring back Bennedict Mathurin, but that doesn’t sound like a team that’s anywhere close to competing in the West. It would take something pretty surprising for that team to reach the playoffs next season, and the play-in may even be a stretch. If that’s the case, given the new lottery odds, the Celtics may have a serious shot at a top pick, and that will be treated like a premium asset around the league if Boston doesn’t want to draft a potential future star.
Then there’s the 2031 unprotected pick from the 76ers. Sure, the Philly team may look pretty good right now, but by 2031, Embiid will probably be long gone, Brown will be almost 35, and his contract will have expired; even Maxey will be 30, and depending on how the next few years go, who knows where he’ll be.
The Celtics likely added two premium draft assets
The point is, anything can happen in the next five years, and the 76ers, despite the addition, are still in a very tough spot moving forward. Their books are clogged with three massive contracts and little depth or anything else to build around outside of Edgecombe. There’s a chance this all works out, but there’s definitely a chance this goes off the rails, and the team is rebuilding in five years while sending the Celtics yet another premium asset.
So yes, the Celtics technically only added one first-round pick and likely one swap, but those two picks could actually be extremely valuable. Compare that to some other possible outcomes, like dealing him to the Raptors or Trail Blazers. Even if those teams were willing to part with 3-4 first-round picks (doesn’t seem like they were anyway), they would have been very good, set up well for the future, and all of those picks would realistically fall in the 20s.
I keep hearing people say the Clippers got more for Kawhi Leonard than Boston got for JB, and I just don't see it that way. Yes, they got one more first in the deal, but the 2027 swap they got is almost definitely not going to be favorable, the Raptors will likely still be good in a few years, and Paul George is better than Brandon Ingram. If the Clippers called the Celtics today and offered Ingram and the picks they just received from Toronto for Paul George and the picks they received from Philly, Stevens would say no in a heartbeat. Context and nuance matter, people!
Even the second-round picks are just that, but they are each the most favorable of three different teams. That's going to have some value on the market and will help the Cs get deals done in the future. The sticker shock of this deal makes it sound worse than it is, but make no mistake, Brad Stevens and company still know what they’re doing, and they’ve added some very powerful artillery to the war chest.
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