There was clearly a lot that went into the extremely polarizing trade that saw Jaylen Brown sent to the 76ers for Paul George and draft capital. A lot of the post-trade analysis has been based around analytics discourse, creating a sort of Rorschach test for how people view Brown and his actual impact.
But what this ignores is the positive impact created by Jayson Tatum and how this trade allows the Celtics to maximize that even more.
For all the attention paid to Brown’s on/off numbers, net rating, and the team’s record without him, not enough of that has been attributed to Tatum. Much has been made of Brown’s -1.6 on/off rating over the span of his 10-year career in Boston, but it’s important to note that Tatum has an of/off split of +5.9 and has been positive in 8 of his 9 seasons as opposed to just 3 for Brown.
Digging a little deeper, it’s clear to see that the Celtics have simply been a better team when Tatum is more central to the offensive game plan - something frequently pointed out by JT’s famous trainer, Drew Hanlen.
Celtics have been unbeatable when Tatum is the clear focal point
Dating back to 2023, Boston is 39-3 in games when Tatum has a usage rate of 33% or higher, and that jumps to an absurd 29-0 when it’s over 35%. He has attempted 25 or more field goals in 68 games during his career, and in those games he’s averaging 36.1 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 4.1 assists on 47% shooting and 38% three-point shooting.
Even in this year’s playoffs, the numbers show Tatum was much more impactful than Brown during the 6 games he played. When both players were on the court in the Philly series, Boston had a +3.7 net rating. That number jumped to +24.1 during 42 minutes with Tatum on the floor and Brown off, and in 41 minutes with Brown on and Tatum off, the number sank to -17.6.
That’s over a 40-point shift per 100 possessions. Yes, it’s a small sample size, but these numbers are indicative of a trend that has been happening for over a decade. No guarantee removing Brown from the equation will allow Tatum to flourish, but it’s a pretty good bet, and one that the Celtics have gone all-in on.
Tatum could take MVP leap without Brown in Boston
As good as Tatum has been, there’s a real chance that he can be even better and that upping his involvement will up his overall production and positive impact on the team. Brown had a 36.1% usage last season, which was obviously jacked up with Tatum’s absence, but that number was at 28.9 or higher for the five previous seasons as well.
Tatum’s usage was higher in each of those 5 seasons, but not by much, never topping out at more than 32.7%. The Celtics believe that removing Brown’s usage and heaping more onto Tatum’s plate will make the team better and that with that extra bump, JT can produce like one of the best offensive engines in the league and make an MVP-level jump.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been at 32.8 usage or higher for four seasons in a row, and Luka Doncic averages 35.8 for his career. Tatum doesn’t need to be that heliocentric, but it’s clear there’s more meat on the bone, and the numbers show that more Tatum is better for the team. They’ll need others to help fill the void left by Brown, but boosting Payton Pritchard makes a lot of sense, while keeping Derrick White involved and adding Paul George to the mix.
But overall, this is about Tatum more than any other player or any other move the Celtics can make. They’ve had a top-5 player in the NBA for this entire decade, and the numbers say his impact has been stifled by splitting reps with an inferior player. There’s no telling if it’ll work out on a full-time basis, but with the leaps he has taken in ballhandling, passing, and playmaking to go along with his always-elite scoring, it’s a worthy gamble, and one that the Celtics are finally ready to make.
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