On the surface, it’s hard to justify the Celtics trading Jaylen Brown to the 76ers for Paul George and some draft picks. But when you look below the surface, and realize that this move was based on different advanced stats based on efficiency and driving winning. The numbers don’t match the perception around Brown, and the Celtics clearly didn’t think his actual value was anywhere close to the contract he’s due. Hence, the seemingly unspectacular return.
And a big part of the Celtics’ thinking, their faith in those analytics, and their sense of value was Payton Pritchard. Pritchard’s stats in small sample sizes have always been great, and in recent years, with a bigger role, he has only gotten better.
His numbers in isolation and pick-and-roll were much better than Brown’s and with far fewer turnovers. Not only that, but the numbers held up over time as Tom Haberstroh of Yahoo pointed out, Pritchard put up 25.2 points, 7 assists, and 4.8 rebounds per game last season in 10 games without Jaylen, shooting 51.3% from the floor and 44.4% on threes. The Celtics went 8-2 in those games.
Payton may not be as good as Brown, but he may be better suited to scale into the number two role on offense next to Jayson Tatum as a true point guard and lead ballhandler who can run the offense, was the second most efficient shooter in the NBA in isolations last season, can make plays for others, and is a much better catch-and-shoot floor spacer than Brown.
Pritchard could be Celtics' version of Jalen Brunson
I’ve thrown the idea out there before of utilizing Pritchard way more, and it’s looking less crazy by the day, but we just watched a small point guard win Finals MVP in Jalen Brunson. Brunson’s career path before joining the Knicks was pretty similar to Pritchard's; both were very successful college players who were overlooked by the NBA due to size limitations. They’ve both overachieved and proved all of their doubters wrong.
The big difference so far is that Brunson got away from Luka Doncic and got to lead an offense that maximized his role, and he turned into a superstar. That’s obviously ambitious for Pritchard, but the numbers suggest that a similar leap is possible with Brown out of the way, so to speak.
You have to imagine that’s at least a factor in the Celtics’ decision-making process here, with Brown potentially set to make well over $300 million over the next five seasons while Pritchard will make $7.8 million this coming season and $8.3 million in 2027-28 - easily one of the best contracts in the entire NBA.
At the end of the day, a lot more goes into it, but I think the Celtics think they have a star hiding in plain sight with Pritchard. That’s not to say trading Brown was addition by subtraction, but there’s a real chance that simply giving Payton a bigger role and a higher usage will make the Celtics a better team overall.
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