Are Jayson Tatum’s recent struggles a result of fatigue?
In December, Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum surprised fans on a nightly basis with his ability to euro-step past a defense with ease while shooting the three-pointer at an unheralded pace for a first-year pro.
This month, Tatum is still pulling off impressive feats of skill, such as his unruly crossover on Pelicans guard Jrue Holiday last Tuesday night. However, his production has taken a slide as the Celtics enter the dog days of January.
After shooting 50 percent, 48 percent and 45.1 percent from three-point land the first three months of the season, Tatum’s conversion from long range has dropped to just 34.8 percent in January. Overall, he is hitting 41.6 percent of his attempts from the field, the first time he has ever fared below 48 percent for a month in his young career.
Tatum’s points per game average has fallen from 14.6 per outing in December to 11.3 in January. He is taking 1.4 free throws per game as opposed to last month’s 4.2 per appearance, and when he does get to the line he is making 70 percent of his opportunities, a far cry from the 82.6 percent rate he maintained from the stripe in the first three months.
With Gordon Hayward light years away from returning to game action and the tandem of Al Horford and Jaylen Brown adding just 27.6 points per game, Boston needs Tatum to remain a threat to put up 20 points every single game. Towards the conclusion of December, Tatum became that guy.
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Over a five-game stretch from December 21 to December 28, Tatum averaged 17.4 points per night, including a 20-point game in a loss to the Wizards on Christmas Day and a critical 19-pointer in a 99-98 victory over the Houston Rockets. Tatum has yet to match that average in a single game this month with his high being 16 points.
In the midst of the Celtics three-game losing skid, Tatum has posted a subpar 10.0 points per game. In his last two games, Tatum has fared 4-for-11 from the field both times, including a nine-point effort in Sunday’s 103-95 clunker at the hands of the lowly Orlando Magic.
Kyrie Irving messed around and dropped 40 points, but the Celtics were done in by the fact that only two others scored in double figures. Horford added just nine points while the entire bench combined for eight. It’s games like these, playing against a Magic team with a horrific 108.5 defensive rating, where Tatum needs to assert his will and assist Irving in carrying the scoring load.
The impact Tatum’s scoring has on the team’s success is measurable. In Celtics wins, Tatum is shooting 47.5 percent from three and averaging 14.2 points per game. In losses, Tatum’s three-point percentage dwindles to 39.5 percent while his scoring average plummets to 12.2 per night.
In his first home contest against Orlando on November 24, Tatum scored two more points in nine fewer minutes. He made the same amount of field goals while taking four fewer shots, and shot 3-for-4 from beyond the arc as opposed to Sunday’s 1-for-4 struggle. When Boston traveled to the Magic Kingdom on November 5, Tatum scored 13 points on 5-for-8 shooting, hitting two of his four three-point attempts.
This begs the question, is Tatum becoming weary after his team’s trip to London? He stumbled through a similar stretch of midseason performances while at Duke a season ago. The Blue Devils went 1-2 over a three-game period between February 25 and March 4 including losses to Miami and North Carolina. Tatum shot just 13-for-42 while scoring 12.0 points per game during this lowlight, well below his average of 16.8 points per game in 2016-17.
Tatum then rebounded in the ACC Conference Tournament, powering Duke to a tournament championship by averaging 22.0 points per game and shooting 31-for-56 from the field over four games.
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Tatum can look to these bounce back performances as a confidence-booster as Boston heads west for a four-game trip beginning Tuesday night against the Los Angeles Lakers.