Marcus Smart and the Trouble with Injuries
By Greg Cassoli
The injury bug has hit the Boston Celtics early and Marcus Smart could miss some time
Marcus Smart tweaked his ankle in the second quarter of the Boston Celtics preseason game against the New York Knicks on Wednesday. He will be out for a handful of weeks, but the team seems relatively optimistic that he won’t be sidelined for more than that. It’s not the first time Smart has dealt with an injury. They’re something of an inevitability given his style of play.
Smart is known for his smothering defense and reckless relentlessness , and the frenetic fearlessness with which he plays is one of his greatest strengths. There is a reason he comes up with lose balls, grabs rebounds he has no business retrieving, and wears down opponents with his oppressive on-ball defense, and it’s because he tosses himself around with little concern for the consequences. Preserving his body is an afterthought when compared to winning. The Celtics benefit from that attitude, but everything goes sideways if it results in injury, and it has.
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Smart has missed a total of 36 games across his first two years in the NBA, just shy of half a season. Understanding the direct effects of that time on the shelf is straightforward enough. Last year Smart generated .047 win shares per game. Multiply that number by the 21 games he missed, and the aggregate impact is a loss of a hair under one full win. That may not sound like all that much on its face, but one more win would have landed the Celtics the number three seed in the East outright, rather than in the three-way tie they had the misfortune of encountering.
The impact of Smart’s injury extended beyond simply his absence from the court. Taking a key rotation player out of the equation means more minutes for less impactful end of the bench types. Terry Rozier has looked like a new man this offseason, but he was a huge net minus last year, and Smart’s absence forced him into more action than he was likely ready for. Boston suffered because of it, and ultimately Smart did too.
The first several years of an NBA player’s career are critical. They are a time to adjust to the speed and style of the NBA game, an opportunity to prove oneself, and most importantly a window to develop skills that were previously lacking. Every practice and every game are critical steps in the path. Injuries buck the process. They stunt growth, and make proper evaluation significantly more challenging.
The Celtics drafted Smart in 2014, with the sixth overall pick, hoping he would become a foundational piece. Not necessarily a superstar, but certainly a starting caliber player on a championship-level team. He isn’t that yet, and his injuries have made it difficult to assess whether or not he might have the potential to develop into such a role. His defense is already there. Smart believes he can guard anyone on the court, and possesses a willingness and ability to more or less back it up. He’s too small to guard bigs consistently, but he can do it in a pinch, and his defensive chops on the perimeter are unquestioned.
Smart is a competent passer and a sneaky offensive rebounder, and ultimately his defensive contributions outweigh his offensive warts. Still, if he could consistently make three-point shots, at even a league average rate, his stock would increase significantly. Every game he sits out due to injury is a missed opportunity to prove himself though, and if missing a quarter of the season becomes a trend, that too will undercut his value.
The Celtics extension clock will start on Smart come the end of this year, and an injury riddled past will undoubtedly influence their negotiations. It might be early to begin worrying about that now, but team building requires foresight, and Smart’s ankle is flaring up already. His ability to stay healthy this year could have serious implications for his future with the team, his perception throughout the league, his development as a player, and his wallet.
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Smart’s effort is endearing. It makes you want him to succeed, to develop his offensive repertoire and become the player Boston has always hoped he could become, but it’s also the driver of one his biggest red flags. It’s difficult to justify handing out money to a player who is consistently hurt, particularly when his injuries have made understanding who he is as a player a challenge. Boston will conduct the necessary calculus to determine just what Smart is worth to them over the course of the next two years. A healthy 2016-17 could go a long way in simplifying the math.