Realistic Expectations for Jaylen Brown’s Rookie Season

Here is a look at how Jaylen Brown’s rookie season will likely go

It was easy to get excited about Jaylen Brown‘s future after watching him in the Boston Celtics first summer league game. He out-played the top pick in this year’s draft and cruised to 16 points, six rebounds and two blocks. Brown impacted the game on defense, on the glass and even was a better offensive player than many expected. His ability to get to the free-throw line – 11-of-17 from the line – was impressive, and he even flashed his athleticism with a couple of near highlight dunks.

Everyone was all of a sudden a fan of the third pick in the draft, and felt he had All-Star potential. Then, in his first two games in Las Vegas, he flopped. After coming back from a minor knee injury, Brown has combined to contribute 14 points, five rebounds, three steals and two blocks in the Celtics first two games. He’s also shot 3-of-19 (15.7 percent) from the field, 2-of-8 (25 percent) from three and 6-of-8 (75 percent) from the line, including going 0-of-6 from the field in their loss to Phoenix.

It’s been a rough couple of games, and the hate and disgust of the third pick has started to come back. While his defense has been solid over the first three games, that was expected. Although, his shot has been worse than expected and he’s been an inconsistent finisher when getting to the basket.

In the Celtics’ loss to the Chicago Bulls, Brown went up for an uncontested dunk at the end of the game, and missed. He got by his defender, soared down the lane but couldn’t finish. The same thing happened in their loss to the Suns. Brown was able to get to the basket, however, he missed a couple of easy layups.

Simply put, he has a million dollar move but a ten cent finish.

As frustrating as it is to watch Brown shoot 22.2 percent in his first three pro games, you can’t get too high or too low on Brown as a rookie. Just like Marcus Smart, he’ll impact the game on defense and every once in a while will have a solid offensive game. The difference is Brown’s ability to make highlight plays at any time makes him more watchable.

When it comes down to it, Brown isn’t going to start as a rookie. Maybe he’ll take the place of Jae Crowder if he goes down with an injury, however, even then, it definitely won’t be the Celtics first choice. For one, Brown simply isn’t ready to have that type of role.

Isaiah Thomas put it best in an interview with ESPN last night when saying “Jaylen Brown, athletic, once he learns how to play the game he’s going to be an amazing talent.”

Thomas couldn’t have put it any better. He’s a freakish athlete, and that helps him on both ends. It’s why he’s been able to make a couple of eye-popping plays on offense and acts like LeBron James on fastbreaks as he’s looking for a chase down block. However, there are still plenty of flaws in the rookie’s game.

It’s easy to see his biggest flaw is his shot, however, it’s easy to forget his struggling finish at the rim after watching him get into the lane with ease. Not many rookies in summer league have been able to blow by their defender or finish over a defender as well as Brown, but, as he’s shown, if he doesn’t get to the free-throw line then he’ll struggle on offense.

Although, with Brown shooting just 69.8 percent from the line in summer league, it’s evident that he’ll need time to grow in that area, as well. Brown only shot 65.4 percent from the line at California, but getting to the line will help him grow in that area. The problem is, what will his role be?

Brown is going to play as a rookie, that’s no secret. The Celtics didn’t draft him third overall to sit on the bench or play in Maine all season. With that being said, it’s hard to imagine him having a huge role off the bench right away.

The Celtics back court is still crowded, even with the departure of Evan Turner. Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier will see the bulk of minutes behind the Celtics’ starting guards, and even R.J. Hunter might sneak into the rotation at the start of the season after his impressive summer.

Hunter’s three-point shooting is something the Celtics were hoping to get out of him last year. With the need of offense, and abundance of defensive talents, it might force Brown to being mostly the small forward or power forward backup, in a small ball lineup.

Still, after Jonas Jerebko‘s strong postseason, and Jordan Mickey‘s impressive summer and D-League season last year, they’ll like see the bulk of minutes at power forward. Both can run the floor extremely well, and Jerebko’s shooting ability makes him a good fit in a smaller lineup.

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With Jae Crowder being one of the team’s most versatile and important players, Brad Stevens isn’t going to lower his minutes for Brown. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Crowder’s 31.6 minutes per game increase a little this season. Even if Brown were to play every time Crowder was sitting, that would only leave him 16.4 minutes per game – would have ranked 24th among rookies last season.

While that doesn’t seem like a lot, it’s most likely the amount of playing time Brown will see right off the bat, maybe even a little less. If he continues to struggle finishing at the rim, Boston could opt towards using Marcus Smart at small forward in a small ball lineup – who is the assumed the next man up after Turner left.

Even though he’s the third pick, Stevens made it clear that minutes have to be earned in their rotation. Rozier had to wait until the end of the year until he cracked the rotation, and even then it took a season-ending injury to Avery Bradley to let him see close to 20 minutes per night.

When it comes down to it, Brown’s inconsistent play on offense will make it hard for him to see significant playing time as a rookie. With Smart already an established rotation member, Stevens won’t loving the idea of playing two atrocious three-point shooters at the same time. Teams wouldn’t feel the need to respect the Celtics outside game, and it would make their offense go stagnant, similar to what happened in the playoffs.

With that being said, Brown will likely be used similar to Smart. He’ll come in for defensive purposes or they’ll use him for his athleticism as a power forward. Although, with little to offer on offense right now, other than finishing an alley-oop, it’s hard to envision an outstanding rookie season. He’ll put together a lot of highlights, but I wouldn’t bet on him to finish anywhere near the Rookie of the Year.

At the end of Brown’s season, I’m sure there will be a 5-to-10 game stretch where he’s unstoppable and looks like an All-Star. There will also be numerous games where he shoots as poorly as he did against Phoenix, and has close to no positive impact on the game.

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It’ll be a rocky road, and expecting him to become a starter in one season is nuts. I think he’ll eventually get there, but, as Isaiah Thomas said, he’s a raw athlete with a lot of talent.