It’s plain to see that Jayson Tatum is off to a sizzling start to the 2026-27 season. Everything other than his three-point shot appears to be all the way back, and even with the shooting slump, he’s putting up big numbers and has quickly inserted himself into the (too) early MVP conversation.
But if there’s one slight oddity with Tatum’s early-season numbers, beyond the poor shooting, it’s that his usually staggering on/off numbers have actually been pretty pedestrian. Strangely enough, through seven games, the Celtics actually have a +4.4 net rating with Tatum on the court and a +5.3 net rating when he’s off the court.
That simply doesn’t pass the eye test or the sniff test and flies in the face of everything we’ve seen from JT and gotten used to over the course of his career. However, when you dig a little deeper into the data, it’s easy to realize that Tatum’s advanced stats are almost entirely being tanked by the dreadful play of Mitchell Robinson.
In 159 minutes this season when Tatum plays without Robinson on the floor, the Celtics have a +17.1 net rating, an offensive rating of 125.5, which would lead the league, and a defensive rating of 108.3, which would be top-5. But in 87 minutes when Tatum and Robinson play together, the net rating plummets to -19.6, with a paltry 93.7 offensive rating, which would be far and away the worst in the league, and a 113.3 defensive rating.
Robinson is completely tanking Tatum's stats
These numbers are even further emphasized by Tatum’s individual stats with and without Robinson. With Robinson on the court, per 36 minutes, Tatum is averaging 17.8 points, 6.6 assists, and 5.8 rebounds with 5.8 free-throw attempts and 39% true shooting. Without Robinson, Tatum’s per-36 stats vault to 33.1 points, 8.8 assists, and 6.3 rebounds with 12.5 free-throw attempts and 62.8% true shooting.
That difference is absurd. When playing with Robinson, Tatum is basically a very good but inefficient role player. And when Robinson is off the court, Tatum is playing like an all-time great and an MVP frontrunner.
It’s not all about Robinson, but the bottom line is that he has been awful, and it’s impacting everyone on the team. The Celtics are straight-up not a good team right now when he plays, and an elite team when he doesn’t. He deserves some time to figure out his new situation and to get in shape, but that time is running out.
He’s killing Tatum’s MVP case, and he’s killing the Celtics. Everyone wants him to succeed and knows what he can theoretically add, but at this point, it’s nothing more than a theory, and if it doesn’t start to become a reality, he needs to be out of the rotation.
Add us as a preferred source on Google