When the Celtics signed Mitchell Robinson with their mid-level exception, I was as excited as anyone. The fit made perfect sense on paper, as Mitch was the best big man on the market and was needed to come in with his elite rebounding, rim protection, and screening. The fact that Boston stole him away from the Knicks just made it even sweeter.
But seven games into the season, the Robinson experience has been an abject disaster, and it doesn’t appear to be getting any better. Mitch got the night off on Sunday to rest on the front end of a back-to-back, but he looked anything but rested on Monday night in Houston.
Robinson played 15 minutes off the bench, scored 4 points, pulled down 4 rebounds, and was -16 in a game the Celtics lost by that exact margin. Yet again, Robinson looked slow, a step off, and completely out of sorts. He was overmatched by Alperen Sengun, wasn’t creating space with his screens, and had poor timing going for rebounds. To make matters worse, he was badly outplayed by Neemias Queta and even Luka Garza, who both had positive on/off numbers on the night.
Stats match the eye test when it comes to Robinson
It’s not hard to watch the games and see that Mitch looks completely off and out of shape, and every action he does on the court appears as if he is laboring. As bad as it looks, somehow the numbers are even worse than the eye test.
For the season, the Celtics are -42 with Robinson on the court and +83 with him off. When he plays, they have an offensive rating of 97.1, which would be the worst in the NBA. When he’s not in the game, their offensive rating surges to 123.5, which would be the best mark in the entire league. The net rating stats tell the same story; Boston is +16 without him and -35.1 with him.
And perhaps as alarming as anything, he’s averaging 3.4 offensive rebounds per 36 minutes after pulling down a whopping 7.7 last season. Nobody wants to pile on or dump dirt on a guy who’s clearly not playing up to his standards, but the Celtics are a wagon when Robinson isn’t playing, and a bottom-feeder when he is.
Joe Mazzulla has already pulled the plug on Robinson as a starter, rightly promoting Queta back to his starting spot, and it seems like Garza may be starting to eat into some of his bench minutes. Luckily, they have the depth to get by, but this is year one of a three-year, $47 million guaranteed deal.
He was supposed to fortify the frontcourt and help Boston with their dominance on the margins, but he’s doing the exact opposite. The best version of Robinson that we’ve seen in past years would help this team reach its ceiling and become true contenders, but as it stands, they can’t afford to have him on the floor at all.
Fortunately, the Celtics are 5-2 and have mostly withstood the gruesome Robinson minutes. They need to get him in shape and up to speed, and fast. But Mazzulla has to do what’s best for the team, and at a certain point, if things don’t turn around, what’s best for the Celtics is keeping Robinson glued to the bench.
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