Somehow, despite everything facing the Celtics this season, they’ve overcome all adversity and sit with a 38-19 record. That’s a relevant mark, because there’s a famous NBA “rule” that was introduced by Phil Jackson, suggesting true title contenders win 40 games before losing 20. Historically, the numbers back this up, as every champion but four have fulfilled this prophecy, with the only outliers having some understandable circumstances.
But generally speaking, despite people wanting to convince you that the regular season doesn’t matter, it’s actually an excellent indicator of postseason success and championship mettle. Well, believe it or not, the “gap year” Celtics have a chance to join that group of potential contenders this season if they can win their next two games.
Not only is it remarkable considering that Boston has been without Jayson Tatum all season, but it’s amazing how this has become a possibility thanks to a crazy heater. The Cs were 29-18 a few weeks ago, but they’ve been blistering lately, reeling off 9 of 10, four straight, and they’ve begun this tricky West Coast road trip at 3-0 after destroying the Suns, 97-81 on Tuesday night.
The only other Eastern Conference team to fulfill the 40-20 rule this season was the Pistons, and the only other teams in the entire league to do it were the Thunder and Spurs. This isn’t the end-all, be-all, but it’s certainly a great indicator, and it would be a nice box for the team to check in terms of proving themselves as legitimate contenders.
Winning in Denver will be a huge challenge
Unfortunately, pulling off these last two games won’t be easy, especially win number 39, which would have to come on Wednesday night, on the second night of a back-to-back, against a pissed-off Nuggets team.
The Nuggets have been struggling of late, losing 6 of 9, and falling to fourth place in the West. They’ll be fired up and ready to play, and with Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray healthy and rested, the Celtics playing in altitude on the second night of a b2b, their third game in four nights, and the last leg of a daunting road trip, this is going to be an incredible challenge.
If Boston is able to pull that one out, they’ll come back home for a chance to go 40-19 with a Friday night tilt with a Nets team that has lost 5 in a row, fallen to 15-42, and is desperately trying to secure a top pick in the upcoming draft.
Celtics fit profile of team to overcome 40-20 rule
If the Celtics don’t win their next two games and fail to follow the 40-20 rule, all hope is not lost. The outlier teams all had a major twist in their season that caused them to take off after a slow start. Boston adding Jayson Tatum back into their lineup would certainly fit that mold, and actually line up pretty reasonably with some of the previous teams to pull this off.
The Rockets were the first team to pull it off in 1995. The defending champions, Houston needed a spark and traded for Clyde Drexler during the season; an extremely notable in-season acquisition. The same could be said for the next team to do it, the 2003 Pistons, who traded for Rasheed Wallace during the season, the perfect missing piece to push that team over the hump and help them secure the title.
The Heat in 2006 didn’t add a major player, but they made a coaching change as Stan Van Gundy left the team during the year, with Pat Riley taking over and leading the team to the promised land. Then, the last team to do it was the Bucks in 2021. Their circumstances weren’t really a big move, but that was the COVID season.
The point is, some weird things can happen within a season that make for some wonky historical results. The Celtics, with the potential to add an All-NBA player to their roster in March, would certainly qualify, so even if the team falls short of 40-20 by a game or two, they’ve still proven that they are real contenders.