One of the most legendary minds in NBA history, Phil Jackson, famously publicized his theoretical rule that teams must win 40 games before they lose 20 to be considered title contenders. Since the three-point line was added in 1979, there have been 46 champions, and only four have failed to hit this mark.
Hitting at over a 91% success rate and brought to light by a coaching icon, who helmed 11 championships between the Bulls and Lakers, this rule isn’t an exact science, but it’s a pretty reliable compass for showing us which teams are contenders versus pretenders.
Applying that rule to this current season, we have two contenders who have already hit the mark: the Pistons at 40-13 and the Thunder at 42-14. The Spurs appear on their way to hit the mark, with a 38-16 record at the break, and then there’s the Celtics, who are clinging to hope with a 35-19 record. The other 26 teams in the league have already lost 20+ games without reaching 40 wins.
While it’s in play, it feels like a long shot for the Cs to go 5-0 out of the break, which is what it would take. It’s an even tougher ask when you realize they’re back in action with a four-game road trip with games against the Warriors, Lakers, Suns, and Nuggets. If they can survive all four, they’ll have a home game with the Nets to try and reach 40-19.
Celtics have unique circumstances on their side this season
But if they fail to reach the mark, all hope is not lost. There have been four outliers in the past, and there’s reason to believe the Celtics could be the fifth. The teams to break the mold all had unique circumstances. First was the 1994-95 Rockets. That team was defending champs, and they made a major trade in season, adding Clyde Drexler for the stretch run and playoffs.
Then there was the 2003-04 Pistons, a veteran-laden team that got out to a 33-16 start before hitting a wall, then trading to add Rasheed Wallace to the mix. A few years later, the 2005-05 Heat pulled off the feat. After getting off to an 11-10 start, Stan Van Gundy resigned as head coach, leading to Pat Riley stepping in and leading them to the title.
The only other instance was the 2020-21 Bucks during the wonky Covid season that was shortened, played during odd months in nearly empty buildings.
What do all of these teams have in common? Unique circumstances that changed the season. What do the Celtics have on the horizon? A potential return to the lineup for their perennial MVP candidate and All-NBA first teamer, Jayson Tatum.
There’s obviously no guarantee that Tatum comes back, but if he doesn’t, we’re probably not talking about winning a championship this season anyway. He may not step in and be his usual MVP-caliber self, but could he offer a comparable in-season lift to 2004 Rasheed Wallace, 1995 Clyde Drexler, or a coaching lift from Pat Riley? That seems more than reasonable.
So, however the next few games play out, you’re likely to hear about this 40-20 rule for one reason or another. But just remember, there are exceptions to every rule, and the Celtics are primed to be the latest outlier.