Heat vs. Celtics prediction and odds for Game 7 of Eastern Conference Finals

Somehow, someway, the Boston Celtics have forced a Game 7 in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Derrick White’s game-winning tip in clinched Game 6 for Boston, putting the team just one win away from orchestrating the greatest comeback in NBA history. No team has ever erased a 3-0 series deficit before.

Oddsmakers are expecting Boston to complete the comeback, favoring the Celtics by eight points in Game 7. They blew out Miami at home in Game 5, and the team has some pretty crazy history in Game 7s, winning three in the last two seasons.

Here’s a look at the odds and how I plan to bet on this Game 7 matchup:

Heat vs. Celtics odds, spread and total

Heat vs. Celtics prediction and pick

The series has officially flipped in Boston’s favor, with oddsmakers setting the team at +125 to win the NBA Finals after taking Game 6.

Even though Game 7s have this narrative of being close matchups, recent history tells us that might not be the case. Let’s look at the past three seasons of playoff Game 7s:

2023: Boston Celtics 112, Philadelphia 76ers 88
2023: Golden State Warriors 120, Sacramento Kings 100
2022: Boston Celtics 100, Miami Heat 96
2022: Dallas Mavericks 123, Phoenix Suns 90
2022: Boston Celtics 109, Milwaukee Bucks 81
2021: Atlanta Hawks 103, Philadelphia 76ers 96
2021: Milwaukee Bucks 115, Brooklyn Nets 111 (OT)
2021: Los Angeles Clippers 126, Dallas Mavericks 111

So, over the last three years, we’ve seen more Game 7s decided by 15 or more points than by less than five points, and by a wide margin.

Boston alone has multiple blowouts in Game 7s, and they both came at TD Garden, the location of Monday’s winner-take-all affair.

The Heat have had ample chances to win this series, but ultimately they have fallen short to a Boston team that has outperformed them all season long.

Now that this series has come down to one game, I’m always going to side with the better team, and Vegas clearly thinks it’s the Celtics. If you want to play it safe, take Boston to win, but I’ll back the C’s to cover and win this game convincingly to get back to the NBA Finals.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.