A rematch of last year’s quarterfinals, this year Boston and Milwaukee will meet in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. This year, the Bucks have reloaded and gained home-court advantage largely due to Giannis Antetokounmpo’s MVP-caliber season. As for Boston, they have Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward back.
Last season, it was the Celtics who had home court advantage as the two seed while the Milwaukee Bucks landed the seven seed. At that point in the season, the starting lineup for the Celtics looked like this:
PG: Terry Rozier
SG: Jaylen Brown
SF: Jayson Tatum
PF: Al Horford
C: Aron Baynes
While the lineup this season will look pretty similar on paper, besides the obvious swap of Irving for Rozier, the Celtics will have some new pieces coming off the bench. A resurgent Hayward will lead the second unit, looking like his former all-star self, as most of last year’s bench will be returning for the series as well.
As for the Bucks, their starting lineup also slightly changes as Brook Lopez replaces former Buck John Henson as the starting center. An upgrade in center has allowed the Bucks to spread the floor and become much more efficient. Although the Bucks upgraded in the front court, they will be without one of their key back-court pieces. Malcolm Brogdon will be sidelined for at least the first two games with a foot injury.
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The Celtics will also be missing a key part of their back-courtwith Marcus Smart being sidelined likely for the whole series. However, what many may forget is Smart was out the first four games of last season’s playoff series with a hand injury.
Boston was able to take a 2-0 lead at home without Smart, but that was quickly followed by two road losses in Milwaukee. While it’s a different year with different players, here is a few things to expect in the series.
On offense, look for the Celtics to attack mis-matches with ball-screens. Antetokounmpo, known for being one of the best defenders in the league, still has his weaknesses. His main weakness on defense comes from getting off screens.
Because of his insane length, being able to slip past screens becomes an issue for the “Greek Freak.” If the Celtics want to score on the Bucks consistently, their best bet may actually be to get Antetokounmpo guarding Irving.
If Irving and Horford are able to work together at the top of the key, Boston will get plenty of good looks. In the second half of this video, you can see Antetokounmpo struggling to get off screens, giving Kawhi Leonard wide open mid-range shots. If the Celtics can replicate this strategy with Irving, he will be in for a big series.
We’ve seen how to exploit Milwaukee’s best player on defense, but that is barely half the battle. How do you stop someone who averages over 27 points per game and shoots 57% from the field, the answer may be someone who has been hiding on the Celtics bench for over a year.
The man who will be called upon to stop Antetokounmpo will most likely be Semi Ojeleye. Search his name on basketball reference and the nicknames that pop up are “Muscles Jesus, Ox, Thor, the Ojeleye Factory and The Man Made of Granite.”
The reason that is so important for Boston? Antetokounmpo is a bully in the paint. It is how the big man scores a majority of his points, and something that if successful, could knock the Celtics out of the series early.
This video is another example of how the Celtics can contain Antetokounmpo. As I mention in a previous article found here, the last five possessions of this video are key. In all five, Antetokounmpo tries to back down Ojeleye and in all five, he is un-successful. If the Celtics hope to contain Antetokounmpo, it starts with Ojeleye matching his strength.
If there is any other interesting match-up to watch for in the series, it may be one between Rozier and Eric Bledsoe. After Rozier torched Bledsoe in the first two games of the series, Rozier referred to the Bucks point guard as “Drew Bledsoe“, the former New England Patriots quarterback. Bledsoe then fired back saying he did not know who Rozier was.
Despite Rozier not being a starter in the series, there will surely be times where these two will be matched up. If this series does go six or seven games, it will get scrappy. Look for Rozier and Bledsoe to at the least have some words for each other on the court.
As far as lineups go, the starters will most likely be the same as the Indiana Pacers series. However, once they get deep into games look for the lineups to get a bit strange. One lineup in particular that could be very effective against this Bucks team is to go big.
A lineup with Irving, Tatum, Marcus Morris, Horford and Baynes. A lineup full of bigs, while also having all five members on the court able to consistently spread the floor gives the Celtics a huge advantage.
Despite having so many forwards/centers, that may be one of the Celtics best offensive lineups. Look for it to be used if the Bucks decide to put a big lineup such as Bledsoe, Khris Middleton, Tony Snell, Antetokounmpo and Lopez.
The pick: Celtics in 6. If the Celtics were at home I can see this ending in five. Overall the Bucks are a very strong team on paper, but the Celtics match up well against them. The Celtics finally look like the team they were supposed to be two years ago. This series may surprise many people if it does end in five, but the matchup favors Boston.