Jayson Tatum Making A Rookie of the Year Push
Ben Simmons is building a Rookie of the Year case that cannot be ignored
After the first month or so of the season, people were ready to call the Rookie of the Year race. Ben Simmons came out looking like a generational talent from the get go, and his production on both ends was blowing any other rookie away.
Right now, the majority would probably still say that Simmons is an easy rookie of the year, but there is no doubt that his lead is dwindling, and he has both Donovan Mitchell and Jayson Tatum gaining a lot of ground.
Tatum will still need to see his role on the team increase, and will need to be a more important presence in every game before he can catch up, but that is exactly where he is trending. Brad Stevens has talked about how his role is going to increase as the season goes on, and he has emerged as the second scoring option behind Kyrie Irving in the month of December.
The best part is that there has been a clear increase in volume and usage from Tatum, and yet he is maintaining some of the most absurd efficiency the league has ever seen. He is over 50 percent overall, over 47 percent from three, and he has now scored as many points as Simmons, on 100 fewer shot attempts. He has also passed Simmons in overall shooting percentage, despite doing a lot of his work form long range, as opposed to right at the rim.
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Tatum will never be able to catch the overall production of Simmons, because he will not be the rebounder and will not approach his assists. Although, his 5.6 rebounds per game are still a strength for him. The difference is that he is not needed to do as much right now, and if you look at what Tatum has accomplished in his role, there is no rookie that is even close to him.
When you also take into account that Tatum has been as good as any rookie on defense, then there is no way you can say this rookie of the year race is over. NBA math calculates the total points added on offense and defense, and Simmons has been in first all the way through. That was until last night, when Tatum, in a much smaller role, eclipsed him.
If you want to look at some more advanced metrics, and it may not be long before Tatum is in the lead for rookie of the year. Their PER is separated by just 0.1, and Tatum almost doubles his win shares. Obviously Tatum has the advantage of being on a much better team, but the fact that a 19 year old rookie is able to have one of the most important roles is never going to be something you can use against him.
The best part is that Tatum should continue to improve. There was a clear shift during the month of December, and we are getting a better idea of how he can handle more volume. It would be almost impossible to keep up the efficiency, but he has such an absurd lead in all those categories that he can afford to dip a bit.
There should be no debate as to who the best offensive rookie is this season, because Tatum has been spectacular in literally every phase of the game. His patience and intelligence as a shooter is that of a veteran in the league, and the control he has over his body as he is driving to the rim is already impossible to defend.
Tatum proved to everyone in the month of December that he should be the second scoring option behind only Irving on this team, and we are just starting to see how good he can be in that role. Tatum is already one of the most trusted player on the team, who continually plays the entire fourth quarter, and improves everything he does in the clutch moments.
Brad Stevens trusts him in literally any situation, with literally any task, and you cannot say that about any other rookie. The one problem is that much of Tatum’s case right now is about who he will become, but we are finally starting to see these things actualized.
Tatum makes winning plays every single time he touches the ball. His lack of mistakes is truly unprecedented for a rookie, and it will only be a matter of time before he takes more and more shot attempts away from the weaker threats on the team.
We are going to start to see a lot more offense run through Tatum, and that could unlock yet another level of offensive brilliance for him.
Right now, Tatum has done enough to be firmly in the conversation for rookie of the year. The reason why his big push is going to begin now is because Simmons is unlikely to improve what he is doing right now. Tatum, on the other hand, is expected to improve what he is doing.
Tatum has been so good in his role that it is impossible to identify any kind of ceiling, even in his rookie season. Tatum has not gone through any kind of slumps, and has never given Stevens any reason to reduce his role. Again, he is doing this in the highest pressure situations on the top team in the East.
Tatum does not have the freedom to explore everything he is capable of. He needs to bring all he can do in within the particular role that Stevens gives him. One of the most exciting parts of this season is going to be seeing that role grow, and what it can become come playoff time.
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If Tatum’s role grows and he continues to play this remarkably with the higher volume and usage, then he could easily snatch the rookie of the year award away from Simmons in no time.