ESPN’s RPM Projections have the Boston Celtics dropping down below 50 wins next season
By all accounts, the Boston Celtics had a succesfull season. They got their top free agent target in Gordon Hayward, drafted their top player in this class while getting an extra pick in return, and managed to get Marcus Morris back while losing Avery Bradley for salary cap purposes.
Despite that, ESPN’s projections based on Real Plus Minus has them projected to win just 49.4 games, a decent drop from the 53 they won last year. Now, ESPN can’t be considered too disrespectful here, because they did give them the one seed.
That being said, these projections must be anticipating a lot of things to go wrong for the Celtics. And, no, particular statistical regression to the mean is no where near an adequate explanation.
While the Celtics should have no problem topping their win total from a season ago, with a great chance to get around 60, there are things that could make ESPN’s projection a reality.
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First of all, there is Isaiah Thomas‘ health. Last season the Celtics actually did a phenomenal job of making up for multiple injuries. Every starter missed some time due to injury, with the longest being Bradley.
The Celtics did a great job of continuing to win through those injuries. That being said, Thomas’ hip situation is a bit more complicated. It is not just a worry that Thomas could miss a few games here and there, but this is the kind of thing people are worried will linger all season long.
If Thomas is aggravated by his hip, there is no way he will be as effective as last season, and he was responsible for so much of their success. Thomas continually closed out games by himself in the fourth quarter, and if he is not himself then there will be some loses because of that hip.
The other risk is that a team with a 60 percent roster turnover will have chemistry issues. The Celtics are going to have two or three new starters this season, and the bench will be lead by first and second year players.
A lot of what the Celtics do depends on their chemistry and working together. If Stevens is not able to run his system properly and there is a rough adjustment period, then that is another way for them to regress.
Then, of course, there is the actual loss of Bradley. He was crucial to what they did on both ends, and there is no doubting they will feel that loss.
Fortunately, there are reasons why the Celtics decided to part with Bradley, and Marcus Smart might be the biggest one. The Celtics have all the confidence they need in Smart’s defense and if they are feeling the loss of Bradley too much in the starting unit, Smart will always be an option to make up for that starting next to Thomas.
What ESPN is then suggesting is that they do not think that Thomas will be as good as he was last year, they do not think that Brad Stevens will get the best we have seen out of Hayward, and they do not think that Smart can replace Bradley’s defense.
Even if one of those three things works out, the Celtics will get to those 53 wins without a problem. When you take into account how much worse the East got, then the Celtics could struggle with all three of those areas, and still be improved.
No matter what, the Celtics have a more talented roster than they did last season, they have a stronger front court than last season with the additions of Aron Baynes and Morris (with some young potential in Guerschon Yabusele and Ante Zizic) and their young talent is another year older with a lot of valuable experience winning last season.
These projections are based on RPM, which means there is a statistical basis for these projections, but having the Celtics under 50 wins is laughable. In fact, having the Cavaliers as low as they are in this East is also quite staggering.
The Celtics do not even need to be the team that fans are hoping they will become to blow away their 53 win total from a season ago.
On top of that, a lot of this feels predicated on Stevens not doing that great of a job. Stevens has never come close to this much talent before, and for a coach that has also brought more out of the talent at his disposal, it would take a disastrous turn for the Celtics to go backwards from a season ago.
In the end, that number one seed is all the Celtics want out of the regular season, but there will be a lot of speculation about how far this team can go and how well they can compete if they fail to win 50 games.
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Right now, the Celtics are sitting in a position where they could run away with the East (depending on what happens with the Kyrie Irving situation) and they should be able to blow away ESPN’s projections, with their sights set on a 60 win season.