You may have noticed that the Celtics are connected on the rumor mill to essentially every feasibly available player.
Danny Ainge’s patience may be finally coming to a crescendo, and Boston could be on the brink of adding it’s next star. The harder question to answer is identifying who the primary free agent target is. On the June 14 edition of the Vertical Podcast with Woj, Adrian Wojnarowski stated that Boston’s top priorities are Utah’s Gordon Hayward and and the Clippers’ Blake Griffin. The Celtics enter July 1 free agency as the most intriguing team in the League, and Hayward or Griffin could be the first domino to fall.
Where Hayward and Griffin would make a difference
Hayward and Griffin produced almost identical usage rates last season, but their relative schematic advantages are vastly different.
Hayward, 27, has quickly shot up the ranks to one of the league’s best scoring wings. He’s raised his scoring average in each of his seven NBA seasons, putting up 21.9 PPG last season . His shot chart shows a diverse offensive skill set, with the ability to score at all 3 levels and from either side of the basket. He’s an efficient scorer on and off ball, thrives in the pick and roll, has a deadly pull up jumper, and has explosiveness at the rim.
Hayward craftily uses screens to get separation and can get his shot off with ease. His 1.38 points per shot ranked 9th amongst players who averaged 15 or more attempts per game. It’s an impressive statistic considering Utah’s complete lack of secondary isolation scoring. Hayward is also a fantastic floor spacer, which is an essential characteristic for flourishing in Boston’s pace and space offense. He shot an impactful 39.8% from distance last season as Utah’s number one offensive option. He’s simply a gifted and multi-faced scorer of the basketball.
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The Celtics desperately need another go-to scorer when Isaiah Thomas is sitting. Hayward’s offensive presence would alleviate the massive workload that Boston places on Thomas’s chip filled shoulders. IT would inevitably see less shots, but his efficiency could jump to the next level. Acquiring a player who can be trusted late in shot clocks or on broken offensive sets is nearly impossible, but Hayward is the best option on the free agency market. Boston addressed the need for isolation scoring by drafting Jayson Tatum, but the gifted 19-year-old isn’t ready to take over games in a playoff series.
Griffin, 28, is one of the league’s elite power forwards. The intrigue is in his tantalizing guard skills, which would would give the C’s an enormous boost over the less versatile Amir Johnson. At 6’10, Griffin has a remarkable ability to grab a defensive rebound, turn, and take off to lead the fast break. He routinely dribbles through smaller defenders in transition and uses quarterback-like vision to find lane fillers and spot up shooters.
Brad Stevens could use Griffin as a point forward, allowing Thomas to enjoy more off ball offense and encounter less blitzing double teams. Playing alongside Chris Paul, Griffin still managed to finish second in assists per game (4.9) amongst big men, trailing only Al Horford (5.0 per game). Opposing coaches would have nightmares scheming against a 4-5 pick and roll between Griffin and Horford.
The luxury of having two elite passing bigs would open up endless cutting lanes and off ball action for spot up jumpers. Stevens constantly stresses the importance of having playmakers at all five positions. No other front court duo could match Horford and Griffin’s passing prowess.
In the half court, Griffin is a talented high post scorer, where he finished 4th in the league in elbow touches per game. Most people identify Griffin as a purely athletic leaper, but he’s aged into a fluid and creative scorer. He can face up off the catch, and accesses a myriad of moves that make him a threat to drive, shoot, or pass.
On drives, he has a quality first step, can spin and finish with either hand, uses the glass well, muscles through weaker defenders, and can gather and rise at the rim over 7 footers. He also has a finesse game from the high post. Griffin shot 42% on two point jumpers and his length permits him to fire his midrange shot with ease. Despite not having Hayward’s natural shot creating ability, Griffin’s 27.8% usage rate was eighth highest amongst starting forwards and centers in the NBA.
Griffin also fills a rebounding hole for the Celtics, who finished 27th in both rebounding rate and rebounds per game. Griffin’s glass cleaning skills could be unleashed once he’s freed up from playing alongside DeAndre Jordan, who has finished top 3 in rebounding in each of the past four seasons. Griffin averaged double digit rebounds before Jordan became a full-time starter.
Neither player presents a perfect fit
For all the fan support showering Hayward and Griffin lately, each come with their respective logistical headaches.
The best ability is availability. Griffin’s career has been riddled with injuries, and he hasn’t logged a 70 game season since 2014. In contrast, Hayward has played in at least 70 games in six of his seven years in the NBA. Griffin remains an athletic freak, but nagging injuries and increased age have depleted his once nuclear leaping ability.
Compared to the smoothness of Hayward’s game, Griffin seems to always be absorbing contact. It’s fair to question if Griffin’s success entirely relies on him placing added stress on his body. It’s a daunting style for a player looking for a max contract into his age thirties. When healthy, Griffin can be a top 10 NBA player. He finished third in MVP voting in 2014, and 8th in 2015. Hayward is unlikely to ever reach that level. In that light, Ainge could take a risk on Griffin, but his longterm health has to be considered.
Another issue with adding Griffin is whether he would limit Boston from using small ball lineups. Griffin is a fluid and disruptive perimeter defender, but Brad Stevens loves utilizing Crowder a stretch 4. The Celtics used the lineup late in games, and relied on heavily throughout the playoffs. Any small ball lineup with Crowder as the 4 would force Griffin or Horford to the bench.
The modern styled Stevens won’t abandon small ball lineups, but it’s equally improbable that the Celtics would willingly cut into the crunch time minutes of a max salaried player. Alternatively, Stevens may be comfortable using Griffin as a stretch 4. Griffin’s 35.2 % conversion rate on spot up threes shows that he’s fully capable of drawing his defender away from the basket. Crowder shot 41% on spot up 3s. Regardless of Griffin’s role, his 3 point attempts would undoubtedly rise in Boston.
Fans should be wary of Hayward’s limited playmaking abilities outside of his scoring. The Jazz ran their offense through him, yet he finished an underwhelming 21st in assist ratio amongst small forwards. As Hayward’s scoring averages have increased over the past three seasons, his assist numbers have declined.
Hayward can make the simple passes, but he can’t create shots for his teammates like Griffin does. Boston’s reluctance to add a ball dominant scorer could be why they cooled off on Jimmy Butler. The motion heavy Celtics aren’t looking for a ball stopper. If Hayward joins the Celtics, he will have to learn how to drive and kick to shooters. It’s perplexing how he couldn’t improve his passing ability while being surrounded by shooters like Rodney Hood and Joe Ingles. Boston was second in the league in assists per game, and emphasizes constant ball and player movement.
Hayward’s 225 pound frame may limit his ability to play the 4. He won’t satisfy the Celtics rebounding needs at all. Despite being 6’8, he’s never averaged more than 5.4 boards per game. He finished 27th in rebounding rate amongst small forwards. To make room for Hayward, Ainge may be forced to trade another wing from the existing depth chart. Jaylen Brown appears to be untouchable, and deserves more minutes in his sophomore season.
Tatum’s roster spot appears safe after Boston refused to include him in draft night trade proposals for Butler or LaMarcus Aldridge. That leaves Crowder, whose bargain contract would have no trouble attracting trade suitors. It’s hard to envision Crowder accepting a bench role after what happened in January, but the Celtics may have a pending deal already in place. The prospect of having too many forwards won’t stop Boston from courting Hayward, but it would create a depth chart headache.
The Celtics appear confident headed into free agency
Boston remains confident that they can add a star player without having to give up any assets. The NBA announced the 2017-2018 salary cap at $99 million, a far cry from the $108 million projection from last summer. It leaves the Celtics are sitting on the razor’s edge of having enough money bring a max contract into their cap space. They balked at a fifty cents on the dollar price for Jimmy Butler, and continue to watch Kevin Pritchard panic over Paul George. Meanwhile, the Celtics continue to hoard future assets as if no superstar is available via trade.
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It may simply be about timing. Ainge may desire to enter free agency with maximum financial and roster flexibility. By adding Hayward or Griffin first, Boston may be better positioned to land a second star thereafter. George does seem to like the idea of playing alongside Hayward. Wojnarowski reported today that the Celtics are working on landing both Hayward and George. The continued patience of Celtics fans may be about to pay off. This roster could look drastically different by Independence Day. Stay tuned.