Lonzo Ball: Big Baller? Or Big Bust?

Can one of the most hyped draft prospects this year live up to the enormous buzz his father has created?

I actually feel bad for Lonzo Ball. He’s a solid player and seems like a good kid, but it’s going to be difficult for him to live up to the hype his loud-mouth father has created. He’s basically going to have to have to turn into Steve Nash or Jason Kidd to not be considered a disappointment.

There’s no denying that Ball is a skilled passer. He easily led all NCAA Division 1 players with 7.6 assists per game during his lone season at UCLA. He displays good court vision and has great instincts that help him find the open man. His height (6 foot 6) also is a great asset to his passing ability. It’s rare that I agree with anything that comes out of his father’s mouth, but I do agree with him that Ball makes the players around him better.

Ball isn’t that great of an offensive player. This past season he averaged 14.6 points per game on 55% shooting from the field. Those seem like solid numbers, right? On the surface they are, but if you’ve seen Ball play, you’ll notice some weaknesses.

First and foremost, his jump shot needs work. He starts the motion down by his hip, twists a little, then shoots from the opposite side of his head from a low position. All in all, it’s a pretty funky motion. It’s worked for him so far in his life but NBA defenders will be able to defend that with ease. Taller defenders will probably even block his shot every now and then.

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For Ball’s shot to work, he needs to have plenty of space. That’s not something that’s overly hard to get playing against Pac-12 competition. NBA defenders are a whole different animal. If he doesn’t work to elevate his jumper, that 14.6 PPG is going to drop. Right now it’s hard for me to envision him even averaging double figures at the NBA level.

Don’t get me wrong, I do like Ball overall as a prospect, but he’s not the type of player you build a franchise around. There’s really only one of those types of players in this draft and it’s Markelle Fultz.

Most mock drafts have Ball going second overall to the Los Angeles Lakers and no lower than fourth to the Phoenix Suns. The Ball family in Los Angeles seems like a perfect fit. It could also be a colossal disaster. The Lakers are in a much different situation than their longtime rival the Boston Celtics. Los Angeles is in full rebuild mode and doesn’t have many great pieces already in place. D’Angelo Russell and Julius Randle are solid options but neither are good outside shooters or great offensive talents in general.

Better landing spots for him would be third to Philadelphia or fourth to Phoenix. For both teams, he wouldn’t be relied heavily on for scoring, especially in Phoenix. It seems like the 76ers have been rebuilding forever. However, there’s some light at the end of the tunnel for this franchise.

After a two year wait, Joel Embiid proved he can be one of the best bigs in the league when he’s healthy and Ben Simmons flashed his dominance in the 2016 summer league before missing the entire season with a foot injury. Maybe a facilitator like Ball would be a great compliment to the offensive abilities of those two budding stars.

The Suns have a plethora of good shooting wing players including star guards Devin Booker and Eric Bledsoe. Bledsoe is currently the point guard of this team so Ball might not have a chance to start right away unless they decide to go with three guard lineups.

Both of those teams seem like much better landing spots for Ball than the Lakers, but it might be too tempting for Magic Johnson to pass up on an LA kid with this much potential.

So far during draft workouts, the elder Ball has only let his son workout for the Lakers. He’s even said that it’s basically the Lakers or bust as far as he’s concerned. Could the NBA have an Eli Manning situation brewing? The Manning’s didn’t want Eli to play for San Diego which had the first pick that year. The Chargers selected Manning, a trade was made with the Giants, and the rest is history.

That same situation could end up happening if any team besides the Lakers draft Ball in a few weeks. Could you imagine how furious LaVar would be if his son was drafted by Phoenix? All the drama that surrounds the Ball family is making some teams hesitant to draft the talented point guard. 76ers special adviser Jerry Colangelo had a great quote about Lonzo and LaVar on the a Philadelphia radio show “Carlin and Reese.”

"“I think Ball is a terrific prospect and could have an outstanding NBA future. I think it’s going to be challenging with the people around him, without being specific.”"

Wherever Lonzo ends up, it’s going to be hard for him to not be at least some sort of a bust or letdown. The buzz his dad has created for him would be too much for basically any player to live up to.

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In the end, I think he’s going to have a solid career as a passer but not as an offensive player. Like I mentioned above, this isn’t a player that you’re going to be able to build around. No matter how much his dad disagrees.