Should the Celtics go with a small ball lineup to get an edge on the Bulls?
The Celtics’ play against the Bulls through the first two games of their opening round series has been fairly abysmal. They’ve looked uneasy on both ends of the court, playing the part of an eight seed far more convincingly than their counterparts in Chicago. Boston’s biggest problems have come on the defensive end, where they’ve struggled to defend the pick and roll (particularly in pick and pop situations), routinely given extra possessions away in the form of offensive rebounds, and consistently failed to contest shots at the rim.
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Chicago has taken advantage, scoring 6.5 more points per 100 possessions than they did in the regular season. That increase bumps their total to 111.1, and represents a jump from a middling offense to an elite-level one. The Bulls deserve some credit here. They’ve executed well, and taken full advantage of the good looks they’ve been given. Still, Dwyane Wade‘s performance at the end of game two notwithstanding, their success has been more a result of the Celtics’ terrible defense than their own offensive competence.
Things aren’t much better for Boston on offense. The Celtics have had trouble attacking the basket. They’ve missed a number of bunnies in close, and looked completely lost passing the ball on the move. Simple pocket passes and kick outs have been flying directly into the hands of Bulls defenders, generating fast break opportunities and further defensive headaches.
Through the first two games of the series, Boston has turned the ball over on 16.5 percent of its possessions, a rate than is worse than Philadelphia’s league low for the year and a hair under three percentage points worse than their own regular season average. Their shooting has been poor as well. The Celtics percentages are down from the field, the three-point line, and most notably the free-throw line, where the team is shooting a horrendous 65.8 percent.
The net result of it all has been a predictably unpleasant one. Boston has dug themselves a 0-2 hole to try to dig out of entering Friday’s game in Chicago. It’s been a decidedly disheartening start, and the Bulls’ dominance has felt severe enough to put fans in a panic. It begs the question of what can be done, and there aren’t many readily apparent solutions.
One option may be to experiment with going small full-time. By this I mean tethering Amir Johnson to the bench and experimenting with extended playing time for Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, and Jonas Jerebko specifically. It’s far from a perfect remedy, but it holds some real potential to juice the offense.
Taking Johnson out of the equation would mean all five Celtics’ starters could somewhat credibly function as kick out options, be it to shoot or drive. It would force Robin Lopez to cover Al Horford, dragging him further from the hoop when Horford is on the perimeter. Both of those things would breathe some much needed spacing into the offense, and hopefully take some of the pressure off of Boston’s ball handlers, who have not handled said pressure well.
Chicago could counter by abandoning Smart, sending his defender into the lane to wreak havoc when his teammates drive. He was an atrocious shooter this year, and the Bulls wouldn’t be crazy not to worry about him. Smart has looked good enough from deep this postseason to make them think twice about that approach though, and he certainly isn’t afraid to pull the trigger.
Boston could use smaller lineups to push the tempo as well. With one of Smart or Brown in Johnson’s place, the Celtics could grab defensive rebounds and start the break with any of their players on the court. That’s not insignificant for a team that could benefit mightily from a few transition looks before the Bulls have a chance to set its defense.
The offensive benefits to going small outlined here are largely theoretical, but the Celtics are in a desperate enough spot that they’re worth chasing. The biggest challenge to their viability, however, comes on the other end of the court. Chicago has hammered Boston on the glass, and giving up size seems a dangerous proposition, but not necessarily an untenable one.
Nikola Mirotic spends a lot of time on the perimeter, and isn’t much of an offensive rebounding threat. Slotting a wing or guard on him defensively isn’t the most terrifying option in the world. The Celtics biggest challenge on the boards has been Lopez, and while Horford hasn’t shown an ability to slow him down, the likelihood of Boston’s rebounding getting worse by going small doesn’t really seem that significant. If, for no other reason, simply because it is hard to fathom it being any worse.
There may even be some added defensive benefits to leaning on smaller units. Having a defender with some quickness will allow whomever is covering Mirotic to show help, and recover to contest a kick out look in a way that Johnson simply isn’t able to. It would also allow Boston to play around with switch heavy schemes in the pick and roll. Thomas’ size makes that a dicey strategy, but it could be something to explore when he is off the floor.
Next: Optimistic View on the Celtics' Situation
The Celtics haven’t looked right in the playoffs. There are very real non-basketball reasons that may be driving that, and they deserve to be respected. It would be wildly unfair to expect Isaiah Thomas to have the entirety of his focus on basketball right now, or even any of it for that matter. There are also basketball reasons for their funk though, and Brad Stevens would be wise to test out some more radical solutions to them. Going small full-time should be one of them.