Winning With Isaiah Thomas

The Boston Celtics know if they want to win it will be with Isaiah Thomas

Isaiah Thomas is having an incredible year. He’s become one of the NBA’s most effective and efficient offensive weapons, posting 29.2 points per game on .442/.382/.910 shooting splits, and leading the Boston Celtics in scoring essentially every night. The Celtics put up 115.7 points per 100 possessions with him on the court, and only 103.1 with him off. Thomas’ ability to score the ball is without question the most important component of Boston’s offensive ecosystem, and a major driver of their success.

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Despite his offensive brilliance, there is a downside to Thomas’ play, and it comes in the form of defense. The Celtics hemorrhage points when he’s on the court, despite the fact that he is frequently surrounded by above average (and in many cases well above average) defenders. Opponents pour in 112.4 points per 100 possessions when Thomas is on the floor, versus 101.2 with him off. For some context, those marks would rate out as the very worst and second best in the league respectively.

Ultimately the good Thomas does outweighs the bad. His team has a net rating of plus 1.3 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the court, and it’s hard to imagine the Celtics ever scoring enough to be truly competitive without him. Boston has been winning a lot this year, and that’s directly correlated to what Thomas is contributing, but there are real concerns about what the reality of relying on him so heavily might mean come playoff time, when two-way play is at an absolute premium, and teams have time to game plan for the specific strengths of their opponents.

Thomas has no shortage of doubters when it comes to the Celtics impending playoff run, and their reasons for hesitancy aren’t unfounded. Historically he’s struggled to score the ball at the same rate in the postseason as he’s been able to across the course of the regular season, and defenses really do pick up more nuance and intensity in a seven game series. The prevailing skepticism, thus, is based in the belief that opposing offenses will be able to expose Thomas’ defensive warts, as they always have, while keeping him from providing the type of offensive dynamism he has used to overcome them in this and other regular seasons.

Mar 5, 2017; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Tyler Ulis (left) controls the ball against Boston Celtics guard Isaiah Thomas in the second half at Talking Stick Resort Arena. The Suns defeated the Celtics 109-106. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

That’s precisely what happened in Boston’s first-round series against Cleveland in 2015 and Atlanta last year. Both teams intentionally over helped, walled off the paint, and swarmed Thomas aggressively on any of his drives. It worked. Across those two series, he averaged 21.5 points per game with a PER of 17.6. That’s not terrible, but it’s certainly not good enough for any team’s sole offensive option. In that sense, Thomas’ critics have reason for feeling validated, but to assume that this year’s playoffs will run a similar course is a substantial oversimplification.

Thomas will be working with far greater offensive competence for the current playoff push. In 2015 he had just two teammates that played meaningful playoff minutes and shot above 35 percent from three for the year. In 2016 that number rose to three, but dwindled to just one with injuries to Kelly Olynyk and Avery Bradley. This year Thomas has eight teammates over the 35 percent mark, including two fellow starters in Bradley and Jae Crowder that are shooting 41.5 and 39.7 percent.

The space that kind of shooting breathes into Boston’s offense is absolutely critical. Where teams could once tilt their playoff defenses to focus exclusively on stopping Thomas, they will now be forced to make difficult decisions about whom to help off of and when to do so. The Celtics have the roster flexibility to roll out lineups that feature Thomas and four above-average shooters and can credibly defend almost any opposing configuration of player types.

This, of course, brings us back to the other side of the argument- that Thomas subverts a team’s defense so badly that, in fact, no lineup he is included in can credibly defend anyone. If we’re holding to the belief that defenses improve in the playoffs, however, than that must also be applied to the Celtics. Boston has a roster full of very good defensive players, and if they tighten the screws, then Thomas can afford some slippage offensively. There is reason for hope that slippage might not be realized this year, and in that hope lies all of the dreams of Celtics fans.

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Thomas has his flaws as a player, but we are yet to see him in a playoff series with a team anywhere close to as good as the one that surrounds him now. Maybe his postseason struggles will continue. Maybe his defense really isn’t good enough for the big stage. Maybe none of this matters because Lebron James is so ridiculously good at basketball, but Thomas and the Celtics have played well enough to make it worth talking about, and that is a lot more than many franchises can claim. We’ll find out soon just how much winning a team can do with Isaiah Thomas.