Second Round Steal: Wisconsin F Nigel Hayes

While Nigel Hayes has performed below expectations for the Wisconsin Badgers this season, he could be a nice fit for the Celtics in the second round.

It has been a trying last few weeks for the Wisconsin Badgers. After winning eight straight and surging to the pinnacle of the Big Ten Conference, the team has dropped five of their last six games with each loss coming against an unranked opponent. Wisconsin’s lone triumph in the dire stretch came against then-No. 23 Maryland, with the primary contributor being 6’8″, 240-pound forward Nigel Hayes.

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The senior notched 21 points and 10 rebounds in 38 minutes in a display of his considerable potential, burying his way to the line on 14 occasions while forcing the issue throughout the contest. While Hayes has certainly had his bouts with underwhelming play over the course of his senior campaign, netting a combined 13 points in 68 minutes in losses to the Michigan Wolverines and Ohio State Buckeyes last month, he still presents tremendous playmaking ability.

Currently slotted as the likely 48th pick in this June’s draft by Draft Express, Hayes could present Celtics general manager Danny Ainge with the perfect opportunity to land a steal who could pay dividends down the line. Averaging 16.9 points and 7.7 rebounds per 40 minutes with Wisconsin this season, Hayes has the intangibles necessary to become a rotational player in the NBA.

His footwork around the rim is solid, allowing him to shake off opponents when playing with his back to the basket. He is excellent along the right block, excelling at spinning off defenders before exploding to his right for a baseline drive. The presence of Badgers power forward Ethan Happ, who is averaging 14.0 points and 8.9 rebounds per game in his sophomore season, makes it difficult for Hayes to garner the amount of opportunities that he deserves on the block. However, when these chances are readily available, Hayes capitalizes on them.

Defensively, Hayes is impressive as well. His defensive rating of 96.9 is the lowest of his career, down significantly from the rating of 101.1 that he posted in 2015-16 while his defensive box plus-minus of 3.6 is his highest figure since 2014-15. In terms of rebounding, Hayes aforementioned average of boards per game is the best number of his career.

The glaring hole in Hayes’ repertoire at this stage in his ability to shoot from outside. After hitting 39.6 percent of his three-point attempts in the Badgers journey to the NCAA National Championship Game in 2014-15, Hayes was expected to remain a consistent three-point shooting threat over the latter half of his college tenure. Unfortunately for Hayes, this has not occurred, placing Wisconsin in a precarious position as Hayes receives an overwhelming amount of his touches while on the perimeter.

Hayes percentage from long range plummeted to just 29.3 percent last season on 4.2 attempts per game. While Hayes is forcing a lesser amount of threes this season, taking just 2.5 long range shots per night, his efficiency rating has not improved measurably as he is converting on just 29.5 percent of these opportunities.

Hayes’ shortcomings from outside have stunted his growth as a collegiate player and is the glaring weakness preventing him from being selected in the top 40 of the NBA Draft. This has been the primary reason why his offensive rating has plummeted from 127.7 two seasons ago to 111.1 this season.

Next: HH Draft Profile: Jarrett Allen

However, his offensive rating is still an increase from last season’s mark of 107 while his turnover percentage has decreased from 12.4 percent to 11.7 percent. If Hayes can become a serviceable three-point shooter, he could become a reliable professional player.