Kelly Olynyk Falling Short of Expectations

With his numbers having dropped despite an increase in minutes this season, Celtics center Kelly Olynyk could be in line for a decrease in playing time.

Following what many considered to be a breakout 2015-16 in which his three-point marksmanship rose from a mediocre 34.9 percent to an impressive 40.5 percent, Boston Celtics center Kelly Olynyk was expected to make a measurable step forward this season. Certainly, head coach Brad Stevens echoed a similar sentiment, with Olynyk receiving his most minutes per game (20.3) since the 2014-15 campaign.

However, the Gonzaga product has fallen short of matching his production from last season in a plethora of facets. As a result, it could be time for the impending restricted free agent to relinquish some of his minutes to one of the Celtics budding young talents.

Olynyk receives the majority of his minutes based on the notion that Stevens is enamored with spreading the floor on offense and ensuring that each of the options on the floor has the capability of hurting a defense with long range shooting. We have witnessed Stevens’ preference for those who can unleash the three-pointer with the absence of center Jordan Mickey from the rotation and starting center Amir Johnson shooting nearly one three-pointer per game, something he has not done since his rookie season of 2005-06.

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While Olynyk entered the season with the expectation of continued development from three-point land, his three-point accuracy has plummeted to a career low 33.7 percent despite shooting a career-high three triples per outing. Olynyk spends the majority of his time from beyond the three-point arc, with 46.9 percent of his shot attempts coming from deep. This makes his drop in three-point percentage so drastic as his ability to be successful on the offensive end is reliant upon his performance from long range.

Olynyk’s game has become overly predicated on the long ball, as we have seen a decrease in the pump fakes and penetration moves that we witnessed in abundance last season. As a result, he has appeared less confident on the offensive end. Per 100 possessions, Olynyk is currently posting a career-low 6.9 field goal makes while hitting a career-worst 2.9 shots per night. His overall field goal percentage has decreased as well, falling from 47.5 percent two seasons ago to 44.4 percent in 2016-17.

Olynyk’s value to the squad is designed to be showcased on the offensive end with his ability to spread the floor as a seven-footer. However, we have witnessed his tentativeness rise significantly on this end of the floor. Olynyk’s decisiveness has evaded him this year, as he has become prone to taking a few meaningless dribbles on the perimeter or throwing up multiple ineffective head fakes at his unfazed defender before ridding himself of the ball. He has endured substantial drop-offs in his scoring average, as he has fallen from posting 17.7 points per 36 minutes last season to just 13.8 points in the same time frame this season. In addition, his turnover percentage has jumped from 10.8 percent to 14.2 percent, his offensive rating has dropped from 110 to 106, his offensive win shares have fallen from 2.1 to a career-low 0.5, and his offensive box plus/minus has dropped below 0 for the first time in his Celtics tenure (-0.6).

This decline in offensive efficiency would be acceptable if Olynyk redeemed himself on the other end of the floor. However, Olynyk has been bullied consistently on the defensive side of the ball. His defensive rating has skyrocketed to a career-worst 107 while his defensive win shares have slumped to just 0.8 compared with the 2.0 he posted last season. His rim protection has disappointed as well, with his rate of blocks per 100 possessions descending to a career-low 1.0. Weighing just 238 pounds, Olynyk is unable to guard big men in the post. Meanwhile, his lack of lateral quickness prevents him from keeping up with perimeter players, making him an overall defensive liability.

Olynyk has also played an undeniable role in Boston owning the third-worst rebounding differential (-4.1) in the NBA. He is averaging a career-worst 7.1 boards per 36 minutes while his total rebounding percentage has come down from 14.8 percent in 2013-14 to 11.0 percent this season. Olynyk has proven himself to be a virtual non-factor on the offensive glass as well, compiling an offensive rebounding percentage of 3.0 percent. For someone who is relied upon to lead the Celtics’ rebounding efforts when the team opts for a small-ball lineup, Olynyk’s dedication to rebounding has been frighteningly poor.

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Overall, Olynyk’s value over replacement player stands at an all-time low of 0.3 while his box plus/minus hovers around 0.0 for the first time in his career. If this lack of production continues, Olynyk could give way to younger options such as Mickey or Jaylen Brown moving forward.