Do the Celtics Have Enough Shooting to Space the Floor?

Did the Celtics shooting get any better this offseason?

It’s no secret that the Boston Celtics lacked long-range shooting last year. Only four players on the roster posted three-point percentages above the league average mark of 35.4 percent. The collective team mark of 33.5 percent rated as the third worst in the league, as well. The primary impacts of such an arrangement are fairly obvious. Missed shots, from anywhere on the floor, but particularly from beyond the arc, where they have the most value, are the surest way to stunt offensive output. Boston’s dearth of three-point competence affected its offense in more subtle, nuanced ways as well.

Without shooting, or at the very least the threat of shooting, on the perimeter, opposing defenses are free to help aggressively, packing the paint and shrinking the floor. Passing and driving lanes become smaller, screens less useful, and points harder to come by. Those realities would be troubling for any system, but they’re particularly problematic for the Celtics, whose greatest offensive weapon, Isaiah Thomas, relies heavily on his ability to beat defenders off the dribble.

Surrounding Thomas with shooting makes life miserable for opponents. It’s nearly impossible to stay in front of him one-on-one but when off-ball defenders have no fear off their men making open shots, they can help stop Thomas with impunity.

When Boston dots the floor with shooting, however, Thomas finds clear paths to the basket or viable kick-out options that can punish help defenders. The impact of a well-spaced floor is abundantly clear with Thomas on the court, but the same principles hold true regardless of who is serving as the team’s primary ball handler.

Of Boston’s twenty most played lineups, eleven featured three or more players with a three-point percentage above 33 percent, a fairly low bar for qualifying as a quality shooter from that distance. All but one of those lineups posted a positive net margin, with an average points per 100 possessions of 108.81. That’s two points higher than the team’s overall mark, and 2.4 points above the league average. Of the remaining nine lineups (with two or less shooters with three-point percentages of 33 percent or better), just three posted positive net margins, with an average points per 100 possessions of 103.88, only slightly better than the Brooklyn Nets.

Brad Stevens knows all of this, and he will continue to try to space the floor as well as he can with the pieces he has. Time will tell how effectively he will be able to do so. New additions Al Horford and Gerald Green should help.

Horford shot 34.4 percent from three last year, a very healthy mark for a big. Green struggled a bit from distance in his last campaign, but holds a career three-point percentage of 36.1 percent. Boston will also hope for internal improvements from the likes of their young back court, all of whom underwhelmed from deep.

Next: Hardwood Houdini Roundtable: Building Around the Celtics

If Boston can get enough shooting on the court, they have a chance at putting together an elite level offense. That should pair nicely with its already stellar defense. The Celtics were a good team last year, but developing into a true contender is no small task, and it invariably means putting the ball in the hoop more often. Just a little bit of spacing could go a long way in making that happen.