Where Does Kelly Olynyk Fit In The Celtics Rotation?

Kelly Olynyk has plenty to prove as the final season of his rookie contract begins. Where will he fit into the Celtics rotation?

Earlier this week, we learned that Boston Celtics general manager Danny Ainge does not plan to offer center Kelly Olynyk a long-term extension prior to the October 30th deadline to restructure his contract, effectively making him a restricted free agent next summer. The decision comes on the heels of the seven-footer undergoing offseason surgery to repair an injured shoulder that will force him to witness the Rio Olympics from his couch in the coming weeks rather, than performing on the floor for  Canada.

Does the fact that Ainge is hesitant to extend Olynyk’s tenure in Boston at this point signal a divorce between the two sides come the summer of 2017? Having missed 43 games over his first trio of campaigns in the NBA and endured a boatload of criticism due to an apparent lack of rebounding physicality, the Gonzaga product will need to prove a plethora of doubters wrong should he expect to remain with the Celtics past the 2016-17 season.

Despite standing a hair above seven feet tall, Olynyk weighs just 238 pounds, and his lack of bulk has deterred his proficiency on the boards throughout his NBA career. After garnering a career-high 5.2 rebounds per game in his rookie season of 2013-14, the 2013 first-round pick’s rebounding averages plummeted to 4.7 per contest a year later and bottomed out at 4.1 per outing in 2015-16. These statistics are troubling as Olynyk’s minutes per game average of 20.2 last season remained consistent with the playing time that he received under head coach Brad Stevens in his first two seasons with the Celtics.

Olynyk has been far too hesitant to bustle his way into rebounding battles and box out opponents on the defensive side, posting just three defensive rebounds per contest last season. Also, his defensive intensity has been troublesome at times as well. His blocks per game average of 0.5 in 2015-16 was underwhelming for someone of his lengthy stature, and his presence on help defense has been lackadaisical on many occasions.

There is little doubt that the Canadian must add some bulk to his slender frame in order to become the rebounding stalwart that is necessary to become more than just a role player on a Celtics team with proven rebounders on the depth chart such as Amir Johnson and Tyler Zeller. With the acquisition of free-agent splash Al Horford, playing time will become even more of a commodity for this quartet of big men. To avoid falling behind in the rotation, it is paramount that Olynyk improve his approach on the glass.

However, the long-haired fourth-year veteran features a valuable skill that none of his frontcourt counterparts contain: three-point shooting. This will be a crucial weapon for Boston this coming season, especially with small forwards such as Jae Crowder (33.6% from three-point range last season) and Jaylen Brown (29.4% from deep with California in his freshman campaign of 2015-16), commanding the majority of the minutes at the three-spot. Olynyk shot a scorching 40.5% from beyond the arc last season while recording a 57.7 eFG% on catch-and-shoot opportunities, an extremely instrumental piece in stretching the floor within the Celtics offense.

With Olynyk on the court, driving lanes opened up for point guards Isaiah Thomas and Marcus Smart last season, leading to Boston being 5.2 points per 100 possessions more efficient with the big man on the court. If the Celtics wish to open up their transition effectiveness and roll out a small-ball lineup, Olynyk is the ideal big man in that situation, possessing the ability to run the floor and pass with ease. He can also step out for a fast-break three-pointer off of a kick-out from Thomas or Smart, something we saw plenty of in January of 2016 when he connected on an astounding 48.3% of his three-point attempts.

This shooting versatility will open up doors for Olynyk to enjoy a breakthrough 2016-17 showing. Stevens has the ability to put him on the floor as the center in a lineup which could include three guards and a mixture of Crowder or Brown at the power forward position against a guard-heavy team. Olynyk’s ineffectiveness in shutting down opposing big men who make their living in post-up or isolation situations (think DeMarcus Cousins or Greg Monroe), rules this lineup obsolete when facing a squad with a dominant post option.

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However, if Olynyk can continue his impressive shooting stroke into this upcoming season while improving upon his ability to stretch outside of his typical defensive boundaries and defend an opposing guard when switched on pick-and-roll situations, he could see plenty of small-ball opportunities. Against teams that receive the majority of their scoring from the guard position, playing the likes of suffocating defenders such as Smart, Crowder, and NBA All-Defensive First-Team honoree Avery Bradley could play major dividends. Olynyk’s shooting prowess could add an offensive component to that lineup that they would not stake the claim too otherwise, and could play a big role in the big man finding his niche as his rookie contract expires.