What if the Celtics Whiff in Free Agency?

The Celtics could be in trouble if they don’t land a star in free agency

Just like the draft a week ago, there are high hopes riding on free agency for the Boston Celtics. After a less than stellar performance at the draft a week ago, the Celtics need to hit big in free agency to reach their 48-win mark from a year ago. While they have a crowded back court, the Celtics need help down low.

Jordan Mickey and Kelly Olynyk make up their front court at the moment, with Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko possible to return to the team. Jared Sullinger has expressed his desire to get paid this off-season, and with doubts about Boston’s willingness to do so after his poor postseason, they will be looking at a whole different front court next season.

Of course they also have three rookies: Guerschon Yabusele, Ben Bentil and Ante Zizic, but none are ready to start right away. Yabusele and Zizic may not even come over this year as Boston would like them to develop for another season overseas. Although, having Yabusele and Zizic come over right away, and Bentil seeing minutes off the bench, might have to be an option if free agency doesn’t go as planned.

After getting knocked out of the playoffs, the Celtics were seen as the favorites to land Al Horford if he decided to leave the only team he’s ever played for in the NBA, the Atlanta Hawks. It became even more likely when rumors about a Jeff Teague and Nerlens Noel trade surfaced. In the end, the Hawks did get rid of Teague, however, they received the 12th pick in the draft from the Utah Jazz, clearing up cap space to sign Horford and another free agent.

Hassan Whiteside has also said that he hopes to make his free agency decision on July 1. With the Miami Heat being the only team able to talk to him so far, they’re easily the favorites to land him if he does agree to terms on the first day. Also, the Los Angeles Lakers and Dallas Mavericks are just a couple of other teams intending to make a strong run after him.

Obviously the main goal is to land Kevin Durant, however, banking on Durant, or even thinking he will come to Boston, seems wishful at this point. With the Oklahoma City Thunder getting better after the Serge Ibaka trade, and Golden State and San Antonio also pursuing Durant, it doesn’t seem like Boston has much of a shot.

Failing to land all three stars would be terrible for Boston, a team who has the cap space to sign two free agents to max deals. While the extra money does put Boston in an advantage, it’s less helpful than most years as every team has money to spend on a bad free agency class, meaning a lot of teams will overpay for mid-tier players.

When it comes down to it, the last thing Boston wants is to enter next season without getting significantly better in the paint. It could force the Celtics to play small with Jaylen Brown or Jae Crowder acting as the power forward, however, in an improving Eastern Conference, it’s likely they wouldn’t match their 48-win season and would get bounced in the first round again.

Obviously it would be a lot easier to play small if the Celtics were able to re-sign Evan Turner. But even that is seeming like less of a possibility at this point. The New York Knicks made a big move in trading for Derrick Rose, which could entice Turner more.

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Also, the Knicks are reportedly very interested in Joakim Noah, so adding Turner to the mix would probably place them in the playoffs. All of a sudden the Knicks signing Turner is becoming a more realistic possibility, and a scarier thought for Boston.

The fact of the matter is, players seem more likely signing a one-year deal this off-season, in hopes of cashing in big next summer. Harrison Barnes has already said he wants to return to the Warriors, taking another player off the table if the report is true.

It’s looking more and more like bringing back relatively the same team is very likely. Even though this team won 48 games last season, it’s far from a sure thing next season. A big move has to be made, but the Celtics will likely have to overpay for a mid-tier player and hope it pays off because the Celtics can’t enter next season with Kelly Olynyk or Jordan Mickey starting for them.

As well as Olynyk played in the first half of the season, he was clearly not himself the second portion of the year. After the All-Star break and returning from his shoulder injury, Olynyk’s production went down to 8.2 points and 3.7 rebounds per game. He also only shot a mediocre 37.5 percent from three after easily being the team’s best three-point shooter before the break.

Obviously Olynyk wasn’t 100 percent in the playoffs, however, his 1-of-9 shooting in their series loss to the Hawks doesn’t instill confidence. Even if he was hurting, he was healthy enough to suit up and saw a lot of open looks on catch-and-shoot scenarios.

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When it comes down to it, Olynyk is not a starting-caliber player. His offensive game is very one-dimensional as 37.8 percent of his shots came from behind the arc last season. Defensively, he’d become a liability playing starter minutes. 20.8 minutes per game – his career average – is the role he’s best suited for. He’s a specialist who can catch fire on offense, but he’s not much more.

Mickey may develop into a starter down the road, or maybe Ante Zizic or Guerschon Yabusele do, but right now the Celtics don’t want any of them starting next season. Mickey played a total of 57 minutes as a rookie, and despite being one of the best D-League players last season, it’s a different game in the NBA. His double-double average and 4.4 blocks per game in the D-League warrant him minutes off the bench, but he needs to prove himself first.

No one is expecting the Celtics to compete for a title next year, but another first round exit would be devastating, especially after an off-season with so much hype. Right now, if Boston wants to take a chance on starting Brown, they have four starting caliber players on their team.

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It’s starting to feel like Boston is having their chance at the wrong time. Gearing up for next off-season is their best bet if they’re not able to land Horford or Whiteside, but signing mid-tier players to overpriced contracts is the last thing they want. Finding a diamond in the rough will determine if the Celtics will improve on last year’s season, but when you’re betting on that, it’s not likely.

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