How Important is Getting Home-Court Advantage?

The Celtics have currently lost home-court advantage in the first round, how crucial is it that they get it back?

It only took a couple of days for the Boston Celtics to lose home-court advantage in the first round. Sitting at 41-30, their currently the fifth seed in the East, meaning a game seven would be in Atlanta. However, three through six is separated by only half a game, meaning home-court in the first round is still not out of question.

Considering the three through six seeds in the East are all even, home-court in game seven could be the difference maker. Besides, teams who own home-court advantage are more successful come playoff time, right?

Last season in the first round there were only two teams that won as the lower seed, and the Cleveland Cavaliers made it three total as they defeated the Atlanta Hawks in the Eastern Conference Finals. When it came to game sevens, the home team won both times during last postseason.

Over the past five seasons, the lower seed has won only 12 times in the first round, giving them a 30 percent win rate. When forced to a game seven, home teams have a 10-3 record, a 76.9 percent win rate. There is a significant advantage to having home-court advantage in any round of the playoffs.

The most likely matchup the Celtics will be in is a 3-6 or 4-5 matchup. The three seed has gone 8-2 over the past five seasons in the first round, while the five seed has gone 8-2 against the favored fourth seed. However, when either of those matchups went to a game seven, the home team was 3-2.

Boston is 24-12 at home this season, including a 14-game home winning streak. In contrast, they are under .500 on the road at 17-18. It’s not uncommon for a team to struggle on the road, it’s not even uncommon for a playoff team to be under .500 on the road.

The Charlotte Hornets are a brutal 13-19 on the road, while the Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks are both only one game over .500 (17-16, 18-17; respectively). They’re all obviously well over .500 at home, each team being at least 10 games over .500. The Hornets have made their mark in Charlotte, going an impressive 27-11 at home. The Heat and Hawks have each gone 23-13 at their homes.

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Teams simply don’t play as well on the road. They aren’t as likely to get amped up by the crowd and aren’t as comfortable as being in their own building in front of their fans.

Boston is especially prone to this as they average 106.4 points and 46.6 rebounds per game at home, while on the road they only put up 105.4 points and 43.4 rebounds per contest. Rebounding is one of the main facets to winning, as is scoring, obviously.

While this year’s postseason should be more competitive than in years past, it only means that it’s more likely to go to seven games. Having a game at TD Garden, compared to in Miami, Atlanta, or Charlotte, could be the difference between the Celtics golfing the next day or watching film on their second round opponent. Very few teams actually benefit when playing on the road, especially in the playoffs when the stadium is rocking for the home team.

It’s really hard to tell how much home-court advantage matters. There is evidence for both cases, as it really comes down to how healthy you are and how well you execute. The East has also not seen its conference as competitive as it is this season in a long time. Even though the West is usually competitive, there are usually clear favorites in each series, unlike this season in the East.

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Obviously Boston will continue to try to win and move as high as they can up the standings, however, whoever they take on will be a battle. There are no easy matchups for the Celtics in the first round this season, and getting home-court could come up huge in a game seven as TD Garden is one of the toughest places to play. But don’t count the Celtics out even if they have to go on the road right away.