Amir Johnson has been in the starting lineup for months now, but should he still be starting?
In the NBA, a team’s starting lineup is not necessarily their best lineup. There is a major distinction between a teams starting lineup, and their “crunch time” lineup. Of course, these things all vary on a team-by-team and game-by-game basis, but the majority of teams do operate this way now.
With that said, however, there is a certain status held by those who are in a teams starting lineup, even if they play less minutes than someone who is not. Think back to last year, when Isaiah Thomas was playing among the most minutes on the team, yet he was coming off the bench as the teams sixth man. While he would not really vocalize it to the team and media, Thomas’ clear goal was to crack the starting lineup.
For these reasons, I’m wondering why Amir Johnson still holds a spot in the Celtics’ starting roster. Despite meager production, especially over his last ten games, there seems to be no challenge to his roster spot. Johnson has played in 63 games this season, and he has started 60 of them.
Throughout the season, Johnson’s numbers have been basically on par with his career stats. He is averaging seven points per game, as opposed to his career average of 7.6. He is averaging 5.9 rebounds per game — just slightly higher than his 5.7 career average. Lastly, he is averaging one block per game, which is consistent with his 1.1 career average.
However, in his last 10 games, Amir Johnson has put up significantly worse numbers. He is shooting 46 percent from the field and scoring just five points per game. He is picking up 4.5 rebounds per game, 1.3 assists per game, and 0.9 blocks per game.
Kelly Olynyk has missed 11 games, and is a possibility to return on Tuesday against the Indiana Pacers. He will need to be gradually implemented back in to the Celtics roster, so unfortunately it looks like this injury has held him from grabbing what could have been a starting spot in the Celtics roster. If Olynyk was completely healthy, and had continued with his season averages over the last 10 games, I think it would have been hard for Coach Brad Stevens not to consider inserting him in the starting lineup.
The net-point differential per 100 possessions when the Thomas/Bradley/Crowder/Johnson/Sullinger lineup is on the floor is +1.8. When Johnson is replaced by Olynyk in that same lineup, the point differential goes all the way up to +23.1. Olynyk is a notoriously weak rebounder, so this could be a big concern with him starting. For whatever reason, however, with Johnson in the lineup the rebound differential per 100 possessions is -2.1, with Olynyk it is +2.2. The Olynyk lineup also gets more assists, more steals, more blocks, and turns the ball over less.
As previously stated, Olynyk can’t be immediately inserted in to the starting lineup. It will probably take him almost the whole rest of the season to get back in to his groove, however, if coach Stevens gets any time to experiment before the playoffs, I would love to see some more minutes coming Olynyk’s way.
Truthfully, Johnson’s current production is easily replaceable. I think it’s time that some of his minutes start being given to Jordan Mickey. As a rookie, it would be all-but-impossible for Mickey to crack the teams starting lineup. Johnson’s spot seems pretty safe, at least until the playoffs (if Olynyk is playing well). However, there is nothing keeping Stevens from decreasing Johnson’s minutes.
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It really wouldn’t make sense for me to compare Johnson’s and Mickey’s stats because Mickey has put up such ridiculous numbers in the few minutes that he has played. The fact that he has the fifth best PER in the entire league should tell you this his numbers are dramatically skewed. But ridiculous stats aside, Mickey has looked really strong on the floor when he has played.
He is clearly capable of protecting the rim, even though it is often in garbage time against fairly weak competition. He seems to comprehend rotations and team defense, which is the biggest shortcoming of the league leader in blocks, Hassan Whiteside. We haven’t seen much from Mickey yet on offense, but it’s tough to imagine he wouldn’t be able to put up at least five points — putting him on par with Johnson’s offensive output over the last 10 games.
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Again, Johnson’s spot in the starting lineup can’t realistically be challenged for at this point in the Boston Celtics’ waning season. Olynyk will be getting readjusted from his shoulder injury and Mickey is too young and inexperienced. But with Johnson contributing so little in his 17 minutes on the floor, I would be happy to see his minutes decreased even further in favor of more minutes for the other guys. At this point, I think I’d even rather see Tyler Zeller and Jonas Jerebko out there than Amir Johnson.