Predicting the Boston Celtics' Remaining Games

The Boston Celtics entered the season fresh off getting swept in the first round of the playoffs. The general feel around the league was that the Celtics would most likely make the playoffs once again, but probably as a sixth or seventh seed again. Most win or over/under projections had the Celtics around 43 wins. At the time, 43-39 didn’t sound like a bad season, however, the Celtics are 32-23 at the All-Star break and ending up at 43-39 would be horrific.

According to ESPN, the Boston Celtics have a 99.9 percent chance of making the playoffs, third best odds in the Eastern Conference. They also give the Celtics a 1.1 percent chance of winning the NBA Finals, sixth best odds in the league. ESPN predicts that the Celtics finish at 49-33 and stay as the third seed in the Eastern Conference, taking on the Miami Heat in round one.

Basketball Reference gave the Celtics a 99.7 percent chance of making the playoffs but a 2.3 percent chance of winning the NBA Finals. Basketball Reference predicts that the Celtics will finish 48-34, a game worse than ESPN predicted, but still take on the Miami Heat in the first round as the three seed.

There are talks about the Boston Celtics reaching 50 wins this season, they would need to go 18-9 the rest of the way, a tall task to ask. While playing .667 ball is not out of question, I don’t think it’s very likely either. Here is how I think the Boston Celtics will fare the rest of the way, a game-by-game breakdown.

@Utah Jazz Win (33-23) – The Jazz are quietly the eighth seed in the West at 26-26 this season. However, this game is nationally televised on ESPN and Brad Stevens should have the Celtics ready to go after the break. This should be a better game than many people would first think, but I have the Celtics in this one.

@Denver Nuggets Win (34-23) – The Nuggets aren’t that good of a team this season. The thinner air may cause problems for Boston early on, so it’s a good thing this is their first game in a back-to-back. The Celtics already defeated the Nuggets with ease earlier this season, and I expect another win.

@Minnesota T-Wolves Loss (34-24) – This could be the last time Kevin Garnett takes on the Boston Celtics. While Garnett may not have a huge role with Minnesota, their young team will be ready against Boston. This is a second game in a back-to-back and I think that will affect Boston’s legs. I don’t think Minnesota is the better team by any means, but Karl-Anthony Towns will get the best of Isaiah Thomas once again.

Milwaukee Bucks Win (35-24) – The Bucks were the last team to beat the Celtics before break. I think that left a sour taste in the Celtics’ mouth, especially after being down by 19 at the end of three and then blowing it at the end. Home court advantage and an angry team is not a good mix for Milwaukee, this one could become a blowout quick.

Miami Heat Win (36-24) – This is very possibly a first round matchup for the Boston Celtics. Both teams will be up and ready for this game and it should be a close and exciting one. However, with Chris Bosh out with another blood clot, the Miami Heat are not the same team. The Celtics already beat Miami once this season. Home court advantage and the lack of Bosh for the Heat gives Boston the win.

Utah Jazz Win (37-24) – The Utah Jazz, like I said before, have been flying under the radar this season. They are full of great, young talent but are a brutal 9-16 on the road thus far, showing their youth. I think Utah will keep this game close, however, Boston excels at home and will pull out another victory.

Portland Trailblazers Loss (37-25) – This one may surprise a lot of people due to Portland’s 11-16 road record. These two teams have yet to meet this season and despite the home court advantage, I think Damian Lillard will have a huge night. Lillard has carried Portland to a 27-27 record, seventh in the West. The Trailblazers aren’t as bad as people expected and are a well-rounded team, an upset is very possible.

New York Knicks Win (37-26) – Division rival and coming off a loss, Boston will be more than ready for this one. The Knicks are on a downward spiral right now, especially after firing head coach Derek Fisher. They’re 9-17 on the road this season and entered the break on a six game losing streak. They will probably win a couple of games before this matchup but Kristaps Porzingis and Carmelo Anthony won’t turn their whole season around.

@Cleveland Cavaliers Loss (37-27) – No one can forget about the insane Avery Bradley buzzer beater to defeat the Cavaliers earlier this season, and neither will LeBron James. If you don’t think he’s ready for his revenge then you’re crazy. James and the Cavaliers will be ready to show Boston why their the top team in the East. The Celtics are also coming off a game against the Knicks a night before, this game could be trouble.

Memphis Grizzlies Win (38-27) – The last time these two teams met, Isaiah Thomas went off for 35 points and eight assists. I expect Boston to bounce back nicely after a tough game with Cleveland. With Marc Gasol out 4-6 months, Boston will be able to focus more on Zach Randolph.

Houston Rockets Win (39-27) – The Houston Rockets have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA this season. The firing of Kevin McHale did nothing as they’re still outside looking in on the Western Conference playoffs. You would think that James Harden would try to will his team after the break into the playoffs. That is unknown and Boston is the better team no matter what.

@Indiana Pacers Loss (39-28) – The Indiana Pacers have played the Boston Celtics really well this season. Paul George has been unstoppable this season and is averaging 25 points and 9.3 rebounds per game against Boston this year. The Pacers are 17-9 at home and have already beaten the Celtics two out of three times. The Pacers have the Celtics number this season, hopefully they don’t meet in the playoffs.

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Oklahoma City Thunder Loss (39-29) – With a loss to the Thunder, the Celtics are on their first two game losing streak after the break. Russell Westbrook would be the MVP if not for Stephen Curry, and they also have Kevin Durant who is a former MVP. The Thunder are arguably the third best team in the NBA and despite the Celtics upsetting them in Oklahoma City earlier this season, I can’t imagine the Thunder letting this one slip away. This is the second game of a back-to-back for Boston and it’s on ESPN, all signs point to a big showing by Oklahoma City.

@Toronto Raptors Loss (39-30) – A three game losing streak is tough to go through, especially late in the season. However, Toronto is already 2-0 against the Celtics thus far and there’s a reason they’re leading the division. The Raptors went into the All-Star break just as hot as the Celtics and they’ll be making a push to take the top seed away from Cleveland.

@Philadelphia 76ers Win (40-30) – There is not a better way to try to snap a three-game losing streak than taking on the Philadelphia 76ers. By this point, who knows who Philadelphia will have in their rotation. With a win against the Sixers, the Celtics will have swept the season series.

Orlando Magic Win (41-30) – Flying home to take on the Orlando Magic is no easy task. They traded Tobias Harris to the Detroit Pistons, making it unclear whether they’re still trying to make a run at the playoffs. The Magic surprisingly lead the season series 2-1 and despite this being the second game of a back-to-back for Boston, I think the Celtics leave with a win and pass their win total from last season. Orlando is 9-16 on the road and I think they’re about to explode after that trade.

Toronto Raptors Win (42-30) – The Toronto Raptors have proven to be the superior team all season. There is still a chance that they can take over the one seed, however, I wouldn’t count on it. While Toronto is the better team, I don’t think Brad Stevens or the Celtics will let themselves get swept by the Raptors this season. This will be their last regular season meeting and it’s a good thing it’s in Boston. I like the Celtics in a mini-upset to secure a record of above .500.

Jan 20, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Boston Celtics forward Jae Crowder (99) takes the ball up court as Toronto Raptors guard DeMar DeRozan (10) tries to defend during the fourth quarter in a game at Air Canada Centre. The Toronto Raptors won 115-109. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports /

@Phoenix Suns Win (43-30) – Following the fight on the Suns’ bench between Markieff Morris and Archie Goodwin, this team can now be classified as a complete mess. They’re arguably the worst team in the league and without head coach Jeff Hornacek, they don’t have a direction, besides down. This should be the easiest win of the second half for Boston.

@Los Angeles Clippers Loss (43-31) – This will be their second game in a five game road trip, and possibly the last time Paul Pierce faces his former team. The Celtics defeated the Clippers in a close overtime game to end the first half of the season. Even without Blake Griffin, the Clippers are dangerous as their record has improved since his injury. The Clippers are fourth in the West and have one of the best home records in the NBA. Los Angeles will win a close one at home.

@Portland Trailblazers Win (44-31) – This is one of those season series that doesn’t make much sense. The Trailblazers winning in Boston and the Celtics winning in Portland? The Trailblazers are 16-11 at home as that is where they have found their most success. Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum will give Boston problems once again, however, Brad Stevens will have a better gameplan this time around.

@Golden State Warriors Loss (44-32) – Whether this team beats the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls 72 game win record is yet to be seen, but mark the Celtics in that win column for Golden State. They’re too much for Boston, or for anyone in the league really. Can’t say much else besides, they’re too good.

@Los Angeles Lakers Win (45-32) – By this point, the Lakers should be tanking hard. This will be the last time Kobe Bryant faces the Boston Celtics. The Lakers have already beaten the Celtics this season but are one of the worst teams in the league. Jordan Clarkson and Julius Randle are a couple of bright spots for Los Angeles, although, I doubt they would be too sad with another loss. The Celtics win and finish their road trip 3-2.

New Orleans Pelicans Win (46-32) – The likelihood that the Pelicans will return to the playoffs this season is very unlikely. They’re a terrible 6-21 on the road and Alvin Gentry has not been the coach they were hoping for. Anthony Davis causes any team problems but Brad Stevens is one of the best coaches in the league. New Orleans took a step back this season and won’t be competing for a playoff spot at this time.

Milwaukee Bucks Win (47-32) – The Milwaukee Bucks aren’t a good team this season. Their height has caused problems for the Celtics this season, however, it is yet to be seen who will be on their team past the trade deadline. They split their two matchups in the first half of the season but I expect Boston to sweep them in their two games after the break.

@Atlanta Hawks Loss (47-33) – The Atlanta Hawks are flying under the radar – no pun intended – in the East. After a 60 win season last year, the Hawks are only a game behind the Celtics for the three seed this season. This could be a crucial game in the playoff race. The Hawks’ home court advantage will be the difference maker in this game though. They own a 17-9 record in Atlanta this season and have already beaten the Celtics twice this season.

Charlotte Hornets Win (48-33) – Following a loss to the Atlanta Hawks, their last two games will be big ones. The Celtics have already defeated the Hornets twice this season and I expect them to sweep the season series. Kemba Walker is having the best year in his career and the Zeller brothers will be facing off once again. Charlotte currently holds the eight seed in the East but are only 8-17 on the road this season. This will be a big game for both teams and Boston will be the team that steps up.

Miami Heat Win (49-33) – The final game of the season is against a possible first round matchup. If the Celtics or Heat have their playoff seed locked up then this game could go either way, depending on if they rest their players. However, the final game of the regular season is at home for Boston and I think they’ll end the season with a bang for their fans. Miami is not a bad road team but it’ll be interesting to see if Bosh is back by then or how they adapt without him.

Next: Boston Celtics: All-Star Break Grades

Just like ESPN, I think the Celtics will finish 49-33 and have the three seed in the East. There are a number of teams that the Celtics could face in the first round, however, I would guess either the Indiana Pacers or Miami Heat.

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Predicting the Boston Celtics’ Remaining Games

By Jeremy Karll | Feb 17, 2016

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