Why Jared Sullinger Needs To Stay In Shape This Season

Months prior to the top-heavy 2012 NBA Draft, analysts projected that Jared Sullinger was a shoe-in for the lottery. But just days before the draft, several NBA doctors disclosed that they had discovered damage in Sullinger’s back. This spooked several general managers into passing over Sullinger – causing him to fall to the 21st pick, where he was drafted by the Boston Celtics. Danny Ainge was well-aware of Sullinger’s back issues and knew it was only a matter of time before Sullinger would need surgery.

This inevitable surgery came sooner rather than later. February 1st would mark the conclusion of Sullinger’s rookie campaign. In a cruel twist of fate, this announcement came just five days after they had announced that Rajon Rondo too, would miss the rest of the season from a torn ACL. Sullinger would undergo a successful lumbar disk surgery in early February – marking the beginning of his long road to recovery.

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It came as no surprise then, when Sullinger showed up to training camp overweight prior to the 2013-2014 season. But this was excusable, considering his primary focus over the offseason was to successfully rehab his back. Also, Sullinger was still in good graces with Celtics fans considering his rookie season had left them optimistic about his future.

The rookie led his team in offensive rebounds after averaging 2.0 per contest in just 19 minutes per game (this translates to an elite- 3.7 ORB per-36 minutes). The tenacity he displayed on the offensive boards is what endeared him to Celtics fans instantly.

The people of Boston had grown accustomed to Doc Rivers’ defensive philosophy – which heavily emphasized swift transition defense – that consequently, yielded few offensive rebounds. Because of this, the team ranked dead-last in offensive rebounds from 2008-2013.

But in spite of Rivers’ philosophy, Sully continued to be a menace on the offensive boards. He also showed promise from mid-range in his rookie season, managing to hit 53% of his jumpers between 10 and 16 feet.

Sullinger’s Weight: A Double-Edged Sword

Above all though, it was Sullinger’s size – particularly the vastness of his rear – that initially intrigued Celtics fans most to him (in regards to his potential, that is). Sully’s wide-frame allowed him to effectively box-out far bigger players, as well as set unassailable screens.

People jested how Sullinger’s best asset was, to put it crudely, his ass.

But Celtics fans aren’t joking about Sullinger’s size anymore. His size comes with a price: injuries. Sullinger is yet to play a complete season. Missing the most important stretch of games last season (their playoff run) due to foot injury damaged his perception among Celtics fans. If the team played that well without him, why do they need him?

Sullinger is also well-established as the Celtics’ slowest player. He’s simply far slower than any 23-year-old has a right to be. He fatigues too easily as well -forcing Brad Stevens to makes frequent substitutions for him. While his fatigue wasn’t a glaring issue in Doc Rivers’ slow-tempo offense, Brad Stevens’ squad cannot afford to play at such a crawling pace.

The difference is, that Doc’s Celtics squads were elite on the defensive end. This means they could afford to marginalize their offense, as long as their opponents scored less than them.

The Boston Celtics: A Team Reliant On Versatility

Brad Stevens’ Celtics team needs to edge out their opponents by out-running and out-thinking them. They don’t have the natural talent to fully lean on one aspect of their game, like Doc’s team did with their defense. The only reason Stevens’ Celtics succeeded on a level was because of their bizarre degree of flexibility on both the offensive and defensive end.

However, Sullinger did nothing for their versatility.

Even though the Celtics’ offense finished below-average in efficiency, their fast pace (5th overall) somehow compensated for their lack of efficiency (and star power). Brad Stevens knew how to use each player’s strengths to play ten-players deep every night. Some teams (Chicago Bulls, Toronto Raptors) rely too heavily on their starters, which invariably means exhausted players down the stretch. This leads to lazy offensive sets (isos, contested jumpers, post-ups, etc…) at the end of games. Meanwhile, the Celtics would continue to bring the intensity, even late into the fourth quarter.

One way Stevens was able to do this was by playing small in the closing minutes. He would deploy traditional forwards at center and occasionally even move Marcus Smart – a natural point guard – to the three. By the end of the season, Stevens established a permanent starting lineup, but he never had a consistent lineup of closers. This made it extremely difficult for opposing coaches to game-plan against his team, since they couldn’t anticipate what lineup would be used in the end.

Absent from these versatile, small-ball lineups, was Jared Sullinger.

Too Slow To Play Power Forward, Too Small To Play Center

Whenever Sully is on the floor, he’s a legitimate detriment to the team’s positional flexibility. He’s too easy to exploit on mismatches (often created by switches on pick and rolls) and far too slow to keep up with the Celtics’ fast-paced offense. Celtics fans have long convinced themselves that Sullinger’s an ideal small-ball center – but truthfully – they couldn’t be any more wrong. He doesn’t create any kind of advantageous mismatches on offense when he’s at center, while the whole point of playing small is to exploit these mismatches.

Stevens did use Sullinger predominantly at center, though. The reason was two-fold: First off, the Celtics’ only natural center is Tyler Zeller, who needs to sit at some point, and secondly, Sully’s too slow to guard most power forwards.

Five or ten years ago, Sullinger would have been fine guarding other power forwards, but in today’s game, PFs are much faster. The position has become more mobile in recent years because of the stretch-fours. For many teams, the stretch-four has become the preferred archetype for their PFs since their shooting widens out the driving lanes. The reason why the position has gotten faster is because teams have begun converting their small forwards – who presumably have three-point range – into power forwards (see Paul George).

The shifting paradigm hurts Sullinger’s defensive potential since he’s incapable of guarding players faster than him. His lateral movement is limited-at-best, so he relies on his body to defend ball-handlers. He does so by slamming his body into his defensive assignment, which leads to frequent blocking fouls. Therefore, it’s really out of necessity why Stevens plays Sullinger at center.

Whenever he plays center, his foul rate decreases significantly. In his rookie season – when he predominantly played PF – Sullinger averaged over 6 fouls per-36 minutes. Since then, his foul rate decreased from there to 4.4 in 2013-2014, to just 3.5 per-36 this season.

Unfortunately, Sullinger’s offensive output plummets at center. Despite his large frame, at 6’9″ he’s too short to overpower most centers in the paint. This would be tolerable if his shooting was at least consistent enough to draw centers out of the paint, since it’d give him an opportunity to beat them off-the-dribble. But his 28% three-point shooting isn’t threatening enough to lure defenders out of the paint.

Offensively, Sullinger is best at power forward. His best weapon is his off-the-dribble scoring. Even though most opposing power forwards have the lateral quickness to mark him, they don’t have the size to match Sullinger. He’s extremely talented at using his body to bully defenders into giving him a favorable position to score.

At 1:04 in the above Pelicans-Celtics game, notice how Sullinger masterfully wields his weight into backing Ryan Anderson into the paint. Just before he shoots, Sullinger gives Anderson one last push-off to create an open jump-hook for himself.

Upcoming Season Will Determine Sullinger’s Future In Boston

Sullinger’s looking for an extension from Ainge prior to the October 31st deadline (the early extension deadline). Sullinger recognizes the stakes, so he made a concerted effort this summer to shed some of his excess weight.

Now with less fat weighing him down, Sully can hopefully develop into a small-ball center. If his three-point shot improves, he’d also give the Celtics another threat from behind-the-arc, which would dramatically improve the Celtics’ offense. Assuming this weight-loss additionally increases his speed, he could return to defending power forwards too.

So far, he’s made promising strides – but if he was to regain this weight – it actually wouldn’t be the first he’d have done this. It seems like every year there’s a story claiming Sullinger has finally lost the weight for good. I’ll believe it when I see it. All we can do is hope this time’s the charm. If it is, let’s also hope that this missing weight doesn’t prevent him from effectively backing down defenders anymore.

Yet above all, it will be Sullinger’s ability to stay on the court, which will dictate his place in the Celtics’ future. If he goes down again, the team will manage without him, though. But if he reaches his potential, Jared Sullinger could become an extremely key building block for the Celtics. He just needs to speed-up, improve his jumper and remain healthy.

Next: The Brad Stevens Offense: Pace, Space And The Pick And Pop

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