Celtics Situational Lineup Predictions Part 2

Earlier this week, I began forecasting what “situational” lineups we could see from the Celtics this season. By “situational”, I mean lineups used depending on the scenario. For instance, in addition to predicting the Celtics’ opening day starters, I also predicted their opening day closers and potential small ball lineup.

The small ball lineup that I had assembled goes as follows: Isaiah Thomas at PG, Avery Bradley at SG, Marcus Smart at SF, Jae Crowder at PF, and David Lee at C. While assigning Smart – a natural point guard – to defend a small forward is a somewhat radical idea, the rest of this rotation wasn’t that unorthodox.

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Having a big man play out of position – in this case David Lee moving from PF to C – is by no means cutting edge. Look at the 1985 Houston Rockets’ “twin towers” lineup. Although it was certainly NOT a small ball lineup – since their starting frontcourt had two 7+ foot-tall centers in Hakeem Olajuwon and Ralph Sampson – it illustrated how interchangeable the two big man positions could be. At the time, Houston’s super-big lineup was bizarre, and ultimately, extremely effective (until they fell to the Celtics in the Finals).

Brad Stevens will need to really think outside-the-box if he wants his team to survive the first round. The aforementioned small ball rotation may be potent enough to out-pace the weaker teams, but it isn’t innovative enough to defeat a top-four Eastern Conference teams in the playoffs. The Celtics will likely finish with a bottom-four playoff seed (5th to 8th seed) in the East, so inevitably, they’d face-off against a top-four team in the first round.

The team is not talented enough to advance any further than last season unless Stevens can conceive some radical rotation. Unfortunately, far more teams will play small this season since every organization saw how effective it was when Golden State silenced Cleveland after starting the SF Draymond Green at C. The Cavaliers had no answer once Steve Kerr made the switch.

Like the Warriors, the Celtics need an “x-factor” lineup to keep in their back pocket. This way, they can unleash it when the stakes are at the highest point.

The X-Factor: Super Small Ball Lineup

PG: Isaiah Thomas

SG: Terry Rozier

SF: Marcus Smart

PF: Evan Turner

C: Jonas Jerebko

To preface my justification for this lineup: this quintet should NEVER start a game together. They’re simply too small. Stevens should only unchain this lethally-fast wild card once the playoffs roll around.

This rotation offers a heavy dose of speed, play-making and three-point defense. Last season, the Celtics ranked fourth in three-point defense – allowing just 33.6% of their opponents 3PA’s to fall. The majority of this credit deserves to fall to Brad Stevens and his masterful ability to game plan. Marcus Smart also deserves a large chunk considering he’s already become a top-class perimeter defender in the NBA. Smart, along with Rozier, Thomas and Turner, are agile enough to chase their opponents off the three-point line.

As long as they can consistently score, their defensive MO is to just score more than their opponents. However, they still must prevent any scoring runs in case their offense goes stagnant. The best way to avoid scoring runs is to avoid the forfeiting of three-pointers. Scoring runs are often catalyzed by multiple three-pointers hit in-a-row. There’s just something about three-point shots that makes them infectious and momentum-igniting. The best way for the Celtics to avoid open three-point looks is to forgo any double-teaming of opposing big man. Doing so means borrowing a perimeter defender, which would inevitably open a shooter. Therefore, Jonas Jerebko will need to defend the opponent’s big man one-on-one.

On offense this unit, has enough speed to drive past back-peddling defenders and score easy baskets in transition. It also helps to have four solid ball-handlers and play-makers on the floor at once.

There won’t always be an open lane in every single counter-attack, though. Thus, they will need Jerebko to adjust his game into more of a pick-n-roll big. He was used frequently as a pick-n-pop option last season, but it’d significantly help this rotation’s balance to have a modicum of post-presence. If Jerebko can marginally improve his strength, he could set hard enough screens to create ample space for Isaiah Thomas and Evan Turner to drive to the basket.

If this lineup proves too weak defensively, Jae Crowder can easily be substituted for Jonas Jerebko. If the 6’5″ Draymond Green can play center, the 6’6″ Jae Crowder can as well.

The Three-Point Shooting Lineup

PG: Isaiah Thomas

SG: Avery Bradley

SF: R.J. Hunter

PF: Kelly Olynyk

C: Amir Johnson

The only time a team needs to shoot a three-pointer is when they’re down three with less than a minute left. In these scenarios, the coach draws up a play for a specific player to take the shot.

The above lineup I created is theoretically ideal for drawn-up three-point plays. While everybody there can shoot threes, there only needs to be three capable three-point shooters. The primary reason Olynyk and Johnson are above is because both are large and quick enough to set multiple picks in a short period of time.

Every after-timeout three-point play is predicated on screening the shooter. While there are often open shooters seen throughout an NBA game that are un-screened, most are due to blatant defensive mistakes, size-mismatches and double-teams.

But when the opposing team knows the incoming play is designed for a three, they can adjust their D to best defend a three. Thus, the only way to create an open shot is to screen a shooter’s defender. The Celtics will therefore need big men in the lineup to provide adequate-enough screens to give their shooter room.

Below, look at the most famous three-point play in the Brad Stevens era:

On this buzzer-beater, both Jordan Crawford and Avery Bradley behaved as red herrings, while the real trigger man – Jeff Green – stood idly for the first three seconds of Gerald Wallace’s five-second out-of-bounds count. If it wasn’t for the threat of Bradley or Crawford shooting the ball, there wouldn’t be any doubt who’d shoot the ball. That’s why it helps to have multiple shooters on the floor.

Because of Olynyk’s range, he simultaneously served as both a shooting-threat and screener. LeBron James – who’s probably the best defensive three in the league (sorry, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George) – had to run around him and Chris Bosh to contest Green’s shot. If Bosh had not respected Olynyk’s shot, he would have sagged off of Olynyk more. If that was the case, there would have been short cut for LeBron between Olynyk and Bosh to contest Green.

Between this squad’s versatility and Stevens’ prodigal mind, there are millions of directions the Celtics can go with this direction. If the play fails to create an open look at the perimeter, Isaiah Thomas is a strong enough scorer in isolation to create an open three for himself. See below (1:08):

I’ll add another installment to this series later this week. Likely including a rotation in case the Celtics need to play big and probably a garbage time rotation as well.

Next: Terry Rozier Signs With Adidas

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