Celtics Situational Lineup Predictions Part 1

By Michael Hilperts | Sep 14, 2015

After rifling through my overpriced calculus textbook, which I still inexplicably own, I figured out that with 15 players on the Celtics’ roster (or soon to be 15), there are 3,003 total rotation “combinations“. By this, I mean that there are a total of 3,003 possible lineup variations on the Boston Celtics. Of course, there’s no way we’ll see that many this season, as a lineup of Jordan Mickey, Jared Sullinger, Kelly Olynyk, David Lee and Amir Johnson would simply play terribly together.

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However, we’ll still see a ton of different lineups throughout this season, especially considering Brad Stevens’ belief in “positionless” basketball. The team’s versatility almost compensates for their lack of a star player. One manifestation of this versatility comes in the form of their diverse lineup combinations.

Stevens will certainly start a different cast of players throughout the season. He’ll also frequently assign a different set of closers to finish the game – probably on a nightly basis.

So without further ado, here are my predictions for certain lineups that we’ll see this season:

Opening Night Starting Lineup:

PG: Marcus Smart

SG: Avery Bradley

SF: Evan Turner

PF: Jared Sullinger

C: Tyler Zeller

It’s hard to deny Amir Johnson was likely brought in to Boston to start, but I still think on opening night Stevens will go with his starters from last season. At the latest, Johnson will likely crack the starting rotation by December.

I’ve seen a number of Celtics fans voice their desire to see Evan Turner out of the starting rotation. These people must have forgotten how important Turner was for the team’s ball movement last season. Smart’s not adept enough yet at creating shots for his teammates to handle the point responsibilities himself.

Opening Night Closing Lineup

PG: Isaiah Thomas

SG: Marcus Smart

SF: Evan Turner

PF: Jae Crowder

C: Amir Johnson

One of the biggest reasons why the Celtics are so flexible is their personnel’s ability to guard multiple positions. This element is exemplified best by Jae Crowder and Marcus Smart. Both players often played out of their natural position last season – especially towards the end of games. Smart’s considered a point guard while Crowder’s a natural small forward.

However, Crowder spent the majority of his minutes at the four last season. He’s also proven capable of guarding fives as well, considering he shut down Al Jefferson one night last season.

In his rookie year, Marcus Smart needed to play off-the-ball on occasion due to the team’s depth at point guard. This year’s no different, so we’ll likely see Smart play just as much time at shooting guard. His shot’s improved to the point that he’s now enough of a threat from long range to help the team’s spacing.

Small Ball Lineup

PG: Isaiah Thomas

SG: Avery Bradley

SF: Marcus Smart

PF: Jae Crowder

The Celtics’ use of small ball became more prevalent once the team’s postseason run began. These rotations kept the team’s energy flowing late in the game. The floor-spacing of these lineups also provided the team’s first offensive option – Isaiah Thomas – with plenty of space to find open lanes. It proved a potent offensive formula that managed to survive defensively.

With David Lee now in Boston, it gives the Celtics a strong pick n’ roll option in these situations that’ll add an element of diversity to their already dangerous offense. His pick n’ roll skills will augment Brad Stevens’ system, which frequently uses HORNS sets.

HORNS is a set-up that often positions two big men at the elbows to create a variety of pick-designed options. These picks are either for the sake of screening the ball-handler or setting an off-the-ball flare screen for a shooter, who’d initially set up in the corners and then curl around the screening big man at the elbow.

David Lee is the perfect player for this late-game offense. He’ll essentially perform the same movements/attacks as Zeller, but with a more finessed style.

Stay tuned for more of these rotation predictions I’ll post throughout the week. Coming up next: Super Small Ball Lineups and Three-point Shooting Lineups.

Next: Celtics Situational Lineup Predictions Part 1

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