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The New Playoff Format, The Celtics And The “Leastern Conference”

By Michael Hilperts

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Check out Joshua Bateman’s original take Here.

The NBA’s emphasis on maintaining parity has always been substantially larger than that of most professional sports leagues. This is evident with the designation of lottery picks to under-performing teams.

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On September eighth, the NBA took another step in ensuring parity and fairness by altering their playoff format to no longer automatically grant division winners playoff seeds.

The old format had additional flaws as well. Division winners were not just guaranteed a berth, but a prestigious top-four seed as well. The problem with this was that division-winners often finished with worse records than lower-seeded teams – just because said lower-seeded teams didn’t win their division.

It’s fundamentally unfair for a team to finish with a higher-seed when a team with a superior record ends up with a lower seed, just because the latter team plays in a tougher division. One such example came entering last season’s playoffs, when the Portland Trailblazers got a four seed despite winning only 51 games. Meanwhile, the Spurs won 55 games and were seeded below the Blazers because they hadn’t won their division. The Spurs had to face off against the three-seeded Clippers, while the Trailblazers got to play the six-seeded Grizzlies (and still lost).

The NBA’s new format will now seed teams 1-8 in each conference based solely on record. In doing so, the NBA stands alone out of the four major American sports as every other league still seeds based off division-winners (and wild cards).

The NBA released the following press release on Tuesday:

"The NBA Board of Governors unanimously approved changes to playoff seeding and qualification procedures effective with the 2015-16 season, the league announced today.As part of the modifications, the eight playoff teams in each conference will be seeded in order of their regular-season record. Most recently, every division winner was guaranteed a top four seed in its respective conference regardless of its record but did not receive home-court advantage if its playoff opponent had a better record.The Board also approved changes to tiebreak criteria for playoff seeding and home-court advantage. Head-to-head results have become the first criterion to break ties for playoff seeding and home-court advantage between two teams with identical regular-season records; the second criterion is whether a team won its division. Under the old tiebreak system, a division winner was awarded the higher seed and received home-court advantage in a series if the two teams met in the playoffs."

Even In The New Format, Divisions Still Hold Weight

In the old format, if the Celtics won the (winnable) Atlantic Division this season, they’d automatically clinch a four seed or better. But within the new format, the Celtics could win the Atlantic Division and still miss the playoffs.

However, the chance of a Division winner downright missing the playoffs is extremely slim. It’d require every team in their division to finish worse than the eighth-best team (or seventh-worst) in the Conference.

Bear in mind that divisions still exist, though. Although it seems like the new format makes them obsolete, divisions remain more than ceremonial. For instance, divisions play an integral role in determining each team’s schedule.

Here’s a refresher for how the schedule works:

  • The Celtics will play the other four Atlantic Division teams four times each for a total of 16 games.
  • They will also play six of the remaining ten Eastern Conference teams outside their division four times apiece, totaling 24 total games.
  • They will play the last four remaining teams three times, for a total of 12 games.
  • They will play each of the 15 Western Conference teams twice, for a total of 30 games.

(Here’s the complete 2015-2016 Celtics Schedule)

Another effect divisions have in the new format is determining the winner of a tie-breaker. If two teams finished with the same record, the first criteria in deciding the higher-seed, is determining which team won the season series. Considering most teams in the same conference play each other four times, it’s very possible for teams split their season series 2-2. In which case, you move on to the next decider, which grants the higher-seed to the division-winner.

With the new format, the Celtics’ playoff chances have virtually unchanged. Yet, for the sake of insurance, it’d benefit the Celtics best if they were to win the Atlantic Division.

Winning The Atlantic Division

Come April, we don’t want to see the Celtics lose a playoff berth as a result of a tie-breaker. Although winning the Atlantic no longer guarantees them a playoff spot, it’ll still put them in a better position to win a playoff series if they’re division champions.

Last year, it was the Toronto Raptors who won the division with the Celtics coming in second. However, Toronto got swept in the first round by the

Truth

Washington Wizards. While the Celtics fared no better, seeing as they got swept as well, it’s reasonable to believe the improved-Celtics can steal back the division. Unfortunately for Boston, Toronto has improved as well.

Losing longtime-starter Amir Johnson hurts the Raptors’ playoff chances. His absence will mean far more minutes for Patrick Patterson and James Johnson at power forward. While neither player’s necessarily weak, neither’s as complete as Amir Johnson. Patterson’s all offense while James Johnson’s all defense. On a contender, both players would be coming-off-the-bench.

Toronto has dramatically-improved at shooting guard, though. DeMarre Carroll‘s a far better two/three than former-starter, Terrence Ross – in basically every aspect of the game. The only issue is Carroll’s a system player – meaning his offensive game is best-suited in a pass-happy system. Dwane Casey’s Raptors offense ranked in the bottom-ten in assist ratio last year while Carroll’s former team, the Atlanta Hawks, were second.

Carroll’s offense was generated almost entirely off of cuts and catch-and-shoots. He’s now going to get far less of those looks with the Raptors. He’s not a shot-creator and Raptors rely too much on Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan on isolations. We can therefore expect Carroll’s offensive numbers to decline steeply.

Carroll’s defense will remain elite, however. But considering his injury history, the Raptors may easily beone Carroll injury away from losing the division.

The loss of Lou Williams will hurt Toronto. They’re moving in a completely different direction with the addition of Corey Joseph, whose now been given the keys to the second-unit’s offense. The reason Joseph succeeded in San Antonio was because he  a) played for Gregg Popovich and b) shared the second-unit with Manu Ginobili, who’s elite at both creating shots for himself and teammates, alike.

In San Antonio, Joseph played within a strict offensive system that required him to merely fill his lanes and carry the ball up the floor. In Toronto, he’ll often need to improvise, which is something Popovich didn’t trust him to do in San Antonio.

Scouting the Eastern Conference

So let’s just write the Nets, 76ers, Knicks and Hornets out of the playoff picture (writing the Hornets out may be a bit presumptuous of me).

Now that that’s out of the way, here are my classifications for the remaining Eastern Conference teams.

The Elite: 100% Chance to Make Playoffs

  • Cleveland Cavaliers

The last time LeBron James missed the playoffs was the 2003-2004 season.

  • Miami Heat

With a healthy Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, and Goran Dragic this team is a shoe-in for the playoffs. They also may have the third-best assortment of complimentary players in the league after Golden State and Sacramento.

Second-Tier Contenders: 90% Chance To Make Playoffs

  • Atlanta Hawks

No Carroll will hurt the Hawks’ wing defense. Korver’s a better defender than he gets credit for but he’s still just so-so. However, the Tiago Splitter addition will give their second-unit an element of rim protection it was devoid of last season.

  • Chicago Bulls

There’s a lot of question marks surrounding the Bulls between their new coach and Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah‘s health. They’re still a well-built team that’s annually proved capable of competing through adversity.

Happy They’re Not In The West: 60% Chance To Make Playoffs

  • Boston Celtics

As long as they keep playing the way they did after the all-star break, they’ll be fine.

  • Milwaukee Bucks

Their intriguing, and rapidly-developing young core – paired with the Greg Monroe addition – makes me fear Milwaukee – but not yet.

  • Toronto Raptors

Solid cast of starters, but none have superstar potential – even DeMar DeRozan. They’re a more-talented, poorer-coached Celtics.

  • Washington Wizards

It looks like they’re all-in on deploying Jared Dudley at power forward. I personally think they’re putting way too much faith in this. Paul Pierce‘s absence will be noticeable every time Dudley gets dominated in the paint.

Underdogs: 25% Chance To Make Playoffs

  • Indiana Pacers

Paul George is still a superstar but his team’s no longer a contender. I could also see Monta Ellis regressing a bit too. Although I do admit, George Hill is the ideal PG to pair with Ellis. You clever SOB, Larry.

  • Orlando Magic

People are expecting the Magic to make the playoff jump this season, but I’m not as optimistic. They are another team that scares me later down the road, though.

  • Detroit Pistons

Brandon Jennings and Reggie Jackson on the same team? The same team whose performance is seemingly-100% contingent on locker room drama (see: before/after Josh Smith).What could go wrong?

Where The Celtics Will Fall

I stand by the following teams clinching the top-four seeds: Cleveland, Miami, Chicago and Atlanta.

If that’s the case, the best case scenario for the Celtics is the five-seed. In order to claim it, the Celtics need to finish with a better record than the Raptors, Wizards and Bucks – all of whom had a higher-seed than the Celtics last postseason.

This new format will likely benefit the league in the long run, but for the foreseeable future, it’ll likely hurt the Celtics. But things fall apart in the NBA so if the Celtics if the Celtics continue to improve and the injury bug kills another team this new format could prove beneficial. We saw how poorly the Heat played last season without Bosh, so if he or D-Wade gets hurt, a top-three seed opens up for Boston right there.

Next: Amir Johnson Needs To Be A Three-Point Threat

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