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Regarding Brooklyn’s 2016 First-Rounder…

By Michael Hilperts

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May 1, 2015; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Brooklyn Nets small forward Joe Johnson (7) reacts against the Atlanta Hawks during the fourth quarter of game six of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at Barclays Center. The Hawks defeated the Nets 111-87 to win the series 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Earlier this week ESPN Insider projected (don’t bother clicking unless you’re subscribed to Insider) the Celtics to finish with a Top-5 pick thanks to their surrogate tanker, the Brooklyn Nets. Back in 2013, Nets GM Billy King – in the Kevin Garnett/Paul Pierce trade – foolishly gifted the C’s several unprotected first-rounders/pick-swaps. One of said unprotected picks are in next year’s draft, when the Celtics have their own pick in addition to Brooklyn’s (click here for a detailed/exhausting list of all of our picks).

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As long as the Nets miss the playoffs, there’s a chance – however slim – the Celtics could win the lottery and receive the first overall pick. As per the NBA Lottery’s format, the Nets need to be a bottom-two team in order to guarantee a Top-5 pick for Boston. While that’s unlikely, considering Portland’s overnight bottom-feeder status and Philly’s existence, it’s reasonable to believe they’ll be at least a lottery team. But bottom-five?

By this point, most pundits have finally recognized the Celtics’ playoff-potential, so we can forget about Boston’s pick landing in the lottery. The Celtics pick will fall between approximately 16 and 22. Meanwhile, Brooklyn’s one (likely) Brook Lopez injury away from total chaos. They barely made the playoffs last season – and with everything Brooklyn’s done this offseason – they’ve only gotten worse. Here’s how Brooklyn’s summer has gone so far:

  • Drafted Syracuse PF Chris McCullough with the 29th overall pick in the 2015 NBA Draft
  • Drafted Notre Dame SF Pat Connaughton with the 41st overall pick in the 2015 NBA Draft
  • Traded third-year C, Mason Plumlee and rights to Pat Connaughton to the Portland Trailblazers for University of Arkansas SF, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (2015 23rd overall pick) and PG Steve Blake
  • Sent cash (allegedly $880,000), a 2018 second-round pick and 2019 second-round pick for Hornets’ 39th overall pick, SF Juan Pablo Valuet (Argentina).
  • Waived Darius Morris, Cory Jefferson and Earl Clark
  • Re-signed Brook Lopez: at 3-years/$63 million
  • Signed Wayne Ellington
  • Waived Deron Williams
  • Traded Steve Blake for Pistons F Quincy Miller
  • Re-signed Thad Young: 4-years/$50 million
  • Signed Donald Sloan

All in all, it was one of the better Nets’ better summers, which isn’t saying much. Compared to year’s past, King’s moves finally emanated the faintest trace of a deliberate plan. He was able to re-sign Brook Lopez and Thad Young on affordable deals, while ridding his squad of the disgruntled Deron Williams by paying him out $25 million of his remaining $43 million.

Additionally, the Nets managed to acquire the intriguingly-athletic 23rd overall pick, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. While losing Mason Plumlee will initially hurt the Nets, acquiring Hollis-Jefferson can help fill the future void created by any trade ousting Joe Johnson. Trading him would be the next logical move for King, but he’d first have to find a suitor willing to take Johnson’s $25 million deal. King also has to be fully-committed to rebuilding to make this happen though. While Johnson’s clearly overpaid, his offense may be the one thing keeping them at a near-playoff level. If a team in need of wing scoring (New Orleans has long been a rumored landing spot) approaches King, propositioning a first and/or prospects in exchange for Johnson, then King needs to pull the trigger. The only teams willing to absorb Johnson’s massive contract would need to be desperate and in win-now mode – much like Brooklyn was when they took on Pierce and KG.

King may also be too bashful to make any further deals that’d weaken his team, purely out of spite for Ainge – who hustled him and Prokhorov with the Pierce/KG deal. King would look especially bad if the Celtics use their pick to select a top-three pick in next year’s draft. That may be enough of a reason then for King to keep Johnson a Net. King will then use this season as a transition year and attempt to make a splash next summer by throwing max contracts at any semi-deserving free agent. With next season’s salary cap increasing by a reportedly $23 million – and with Johnson’s salary off the books – the Nets will have enough cash to sign at least two players to max contracts.

At this point, the Nets have approximately only $50 million committed to player’s salaries next season, so the prospect of returning to contention by the 2016-2017 season may convince King to keep the Nets’ somewhat competitive as tanking may yield minimal benefits.

If I had to guess, his roster – as it currently stands – should win at least 25 games, with 40 being their absolute ceiling.

2015-2016 Brooklyn Nets Projected Starting Lineup:

PG: Jarrett Jack

SG: Bojan Bogdanovic

SF: Joe Johnson

PF: Thad Young

C: Brook Lopez

Bench:

PG: Shane Larkin

SG: Wayne Ellington, Markel Brown

SF: Sergey Karasev, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

PF: Thomas Robinson

C: Andrea Bargnani

There’s certainly talent on their roster, but the question’s really how well they’ll fit together. Lopez isn’t a great defender and Young’s a decent man-to-man defender, but certainly not a rim protector and capable of compensating for Lopez’s lackluster defense. Jack starting a point guard isn’t ideal either. He’s best in a 6th man role where he can focus more on scoring than running the offense.

Without a point guard capable of orchestrating an offense, the Nets offense will find itself running lazy offensive sets – inevitably with Johnson isolating or Lopez posting up. Teams will have the Nets’ offense figured out by day one, with little need for game planning throughout the season.

Coach Lionel Hollins is an undoubtedly capable coach – as he illustrated in 2013 when he led the Grizzlies to the Western Conference Finals – but he’s no offensive mastermind, like Don Nelson or Alvin Gentry. He’s simply too old school (not a metric stats guy) and not creative enough to find a way find a way to make his awkward-fitting personnel mesh on offense.

Yet, between Lopez and Johnson’s occasional offensive bursts, they won’t embarrass themselves too much. The team also has enough experience to avoid making the mistakes younger teams will make. Additionally, their bench is capable enough to contribute. Thomas Robinson‘s due for a breakout year and Bargnani, while infinitely frustrating, is capable of catching fire every so often.

Thus, I can see this team (unfortunately) pulling off 33 wins – but ONLY IF King refuses to blow the team up. Yet, his willingness to trade Mason Plumlee leaves me thinking he’s trading Johnson, which – if it happens – will make this team a bottom-five team. Also Brook Lopez’s frequent foot injuries could really upset this team’s balance, considering that’d force Andrea Bargnani to start at center. Their defense would turn historically-abysmal.

So let’s hope Celtics fans, that King can find it in himself to swallow his pride and allow his team to miss the playoffs. If so, a top-five pick is definitely possible for the Celtics.

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