With the Rising Cap, Will Any Current Celtics Receive the Max?

I feel like a broken record when I mention the upcoming TV deal in every single article I write. It’s impact cannot be overstated, however.

For those needing enlightenment on this subject, back in 2014 the NBA signed a TV deal with ESPN and Turner Broadcasting that’ll eventually net the NBA an estimated $24 billion. This’ll pay the NBA approximately $2.6 billion a year beginning next season.

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As basis for comparison, the NBA, under their current deal – signed in 2007 – receive only $930 million a year from its TV rights. Since the salary cap’s determined by the league’s income, this major increase in profits will exponentially raise the salary cap for the 2016-2017 season. Its expected to rise from $67 million – which is what its currently at – to $90 million next season. The estimated $23 million more of cap space (going from $67 million this year to an estimated $90 million next season) enables each team to sign an additional player to a max contract.

Even though we still have another season until it spikes, the effects have already been noticeable. Tristan Thompson, who’s expected to sign a contract this summer that’ll pay him approximately $15 million a year, would have been lucky to receive $10 million last season. This upcoming cap will allows teams to retain players like Thompson who aren’t traditionally considered “max players”.

We’re also witnessing players who are now seeking one-year contracts for the sake of capitalizing on the rising cap for next season. This will potentially permit these players to earn bigger paychecks under the future cap. Prior to this year, it was virtually unheard of to see players leave guaranteed money on the table. Yet in the current landscape, these gamblers may actually prove wise, as it could ultimately yield substantially-higher incomes. All they need to do is prove they’re worth it, and then they’ll reap the rewards considerably.

Rajon Rondo, who signed a one-year deal with the Sacramento Kings this offseason, did exactly this. Since his stock dipped appreciably with the Mavericks last season, he’s now gambling on himself in the hopes that it’ll raise his stock this year in order to earn a max next season. However, he’s now tasked with proving to the league that he’s neither a headcase, nor a shell of his former, pre-ACL tear, self.

Meanwhile, the Celtics are still looking for a star to build around, yet, they have some younger players that are approaching free agency and looking to extend their contracts. Jared Sullinger‘s currently at that stage of his career now that his rookie contract is set to expire next year. He’s hoping the C’s will extend him by October 31st, seeing as that’s the “early contract extension”.

Why else would Sullinger have lost so much weight recently?

Is he worth it though? Are any Celtics worth it?

At this point, Sullinger hasn’t demonstrated to the Celtics that he deserves a max contract. While his stats have been solid, last year averaging: 13.3 PPG and 7.6 RPG on 44% shooting, he’s failed to really establish an identity as an NBA player. Does he have stretch-four potential? Doubtful, seeing as he’s averaged less than 29% from three in the past two seasons (off a ton of threes).

Do we know if he’s even a four? In a league where the power forward position has largely sped up and increased its shooting range, Sullinger may simply be too slow to guard other PFs.

With the NBA’s recently-found affinity for small-ball lineups (see 2015 NBA Finals), it’d be easy to convince oneself that Sullinger could be an effective new-age center. However, the whole point of playing small ball is to outpace the opposing team. With Sullinger, you gain no competitive edge playing him at center, seeing as he’s just as slow as centers, but just shorter – with no discernible advantages.

It’d be wise for Ainge to forego any extension until we see Sullinger play this season. Sullinger will only warrant a max contract if he can manage to stay in shape for the entire year, as well as find a consistent three-point shot without sacrificing any current strengths: most notably his rebounding.

Sullinger’s not the only player whose free agecy will coincide with the cap rise.

David Lee will become a free agent following this season, and he – unlike any other Celtics – has already earned himself a max contract. He’ll be 33 by next summer, and unless you’re Kobe Bryant, players in their mid-30’s don’t earn max contracts. If Ainge chooses to re-sign him, it’ll most likely be to a short term contract for less than $10 million a year. However, it all depends on how well Lee plays this season. If he returns to his All-Star form, and averages 20-and-10, he’ll earn a whole lot more. It’d still be for a short period of time though.

If Marcus Smart was approaching free agency this summer, he’d likely receive a max contract, yet, we have him for another three years before Ainge has to worry about re-signing him. So let’s exclude any player who still has two or more years remaining on their deals.

That leaves Tyler Zeller and Perry Jones. And, of course, neither of them will earn themselves a max contract. Jones will struggle to make the Celtics 15 man roster, while Zeller’s merely proven himself to be a solid backup center in this league.

So it looks like Ainge really doesn’t have any max contracts he’ll need to issue next summer, unless there’s a star player who we either acquire in free agency or via trade.

If Isaiah Thomas was to become a free agent this upcoming summer, I think I’d give him a max offer sheet for around $20 million. He’s set to earn less than $7 million for the next three years, though. And yes, Thomas did fire his agent.

Next: What are the chances of Kevin Durant becoming a Celtic?

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