Solving the Celtics Power Forward Conundrum

Oct 22, 2014; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Celtics center Jared Sullinger (7) and center Kelly Olynyk (41) defend against Brooklyn Nets forward Cory Jefferson (21) in the first quarter at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Before David Lee became a Celtic, the C’s already had a log jam at the power forward position. Now with Lee, it’s inevitable that either somebody will be very unhappy with their minutes, or Danny Ainge still has moves up his sleeve.

With Kelly Olynyk, Jared Sullinger, Amir Johnson, David Lee, Jae Crowder (SF/PF combo) and Jonas Jerebko (SF/PF combo) signed through next season (not to mention Jordan Mickey – who may receive a guaranteed contract), there’s no way Stevens can allocate enough minutes to satisfy each player. Therefore, at least one player must go in order to balance out this roster.

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Its got to be either Olynyk or Sullinger.

David Lee and Amir Johnson have both earned the right to start on opening night. The veterans have had more success than any of their teammates, and are capable of sharing the front court, seeing as Johnson can play the five. Also, neither has yet to display a decisive drop-off in performance. David Lee’s dip in minutes was to no fault of his own, as Steve Kerr ran different schemes with the Warriors that were better-suited with Draymond Green at the four.

Additionally, Johnson and Lee have the highest salaries on the team (Lee at $15 million, Johnson at $12 million) and because of this, they’re likely slated to receive significant minutes, regardless of their performance. Teams often play their highest-paid players more than they would otherwise play if they weren’t the highest paid. This could be for the sake of showcasing their talents (for the sake of trading them), or simply because they want to get their money’s worth. While this is certainly not always the case (see: Gerald Wallace), the fact that both players were acquired this summer, presumably for the sake of improving the team this season (unlike Wallace’s acquisition), expect this to hold true.

These two are likely safe until the end of the year (when Lee’s contract expires and Johnson’s contract becomes non-guaranteed), however, even if things go awry, they’ll at least make it to the trade deadline.

Jerebko and Crowder are also staying put, but for these reasons:

1. They just re-signed this summer: Crowder at 5-year-$35 million deal and Jerebko at 2-year-$10 million. While this poses no guarantees, the fact that Ainge committed to both players illustrates a place for them in his short-term plans. Additionally, both players – while on affordable contracts – wouldn’t fetch that high of a return on the trade market.

2. Jerebko and Crowder bring an element of flexibility to the Celtics’ offense and defense. Although Jerebko’s no Tony Allen, his hustle and ability to guard both forward positions makes him an asset to the Celtics. This also allows him to play alongside two bigs if the C’s need him at small forward and with our depth at the four, this ability becomes invaluable. Jerebko was also one of the Celtics’ best three-point shooters last season, knocking down 41% with the C’s. For a team that shoots a ton of threes (top-15 in 3PA), yet doesn’t necessarily hit them (bottom-4 in 3p%), it makes sense to re-up your best shooter.

Meanwhile, Crowder served as the Celtics utility man last season. He was essentially the basketball equivalent of Brock Holt; playing whatever position asked of him without the slightest hesitation. Expect Stevens to continue using Crowder in this role, especially now that there’s an even-bigger logjam at the four.

Although Crowder’s listed as a small forward, his muscle and fortitude allowed Stevens to play him at the four spot throughout many 4th quarters: when Stevens prefers to use smaller lineups. Crowder has also been asked to play center on a couple successful occasions; one time he even shut down the post-master Al Jefferson, leading to a Celtics win. The primary reason for using Crowder at center, however, is for scoring punches, which allows the Celtics to run all over their opponents on offense.

Ainge and Stevens believe they’ve discovered a real game-changer in Jae Crowder, and in turn, locked him up for five more seasons. His presence isn’t going to hurt the Celtics at all.

However, Sullinger and Olynyk’s presence may do more harm than good. Neither player’s a star and neither provides the Celtics with an element that another player, more conducive to the team’s agenda, doesn’t already bring. Their too limited of basketball players to warrant minutes over more deserving teammates.

Both players do have skill sets that can be beneficial to the Celtics, however. Sullinger may be the team’s best rebounder, as stats would suggest; while Olynyk’s potential as a stretch-four is, no doubt, enticing. Yet, with Sullinger, the problem is that he’s too slow of a player to succeed on a fast-paced team, which requires it’s big men to consistently run the floor. If he remains overweight, Sullinger will never find himself in a stable situation. He’s too short to guard centers and too slow to guard PFs.

Sullinger’s offensive arsenal leaves much to be desired as well. While Sullinger has a knack at getting inside position against smaller forwards, his poor stamina prevents him from performing this move frequently enough. Additionally, his post-moves are can seem telegraphed at times, likely due to fatigue, and can lead to easy blocks for the opposing team’s rim protectors. While it seems that Stevens doesn’t discourage him from taking threes, Sullinger’s three-point game reminds me way too much of Antoine Walker‘s. While Sullinger should be primarily rolling after he screens, he often opts to flare out to the three-point line.

While Olynyk’s offensive game doesn’t have ‘number-one option’-potential, it is certainly the best aspect of his game. He can run the floor effectively and can excels at transition lay-ups. His 35% from three, while average, is encouraging for a seven-footer. The only issue with his offense, however, is his lack of aggression. It’s frustrating to watch him pump-fake on pick n’ pops and then either pass the ball or drive into a crowded post.

Defense is the real concern with Olynyk. He’s too passive and weak to stifle post-scorers, which typically results in free-throws for the opposing team. Olynyk’s T-Rex arms will forever prevent him becoming a shot-blocker, while his size and speed prohibits him from guarding smaller forwards on the perimeter.

One of the two will have to go. Sullinger is slated to become a RFA after this season, and despite his weight problems, he could still be an asset to the right team. Olynyk still has two more seasons until his affordable rookie contract expires, thus, any team needing front court depth, in addition to shooting would love to acquire Olynyk.

What the Celtics need is depth at small forward. Evan Turner playing the three simply isn’t sustainable. As Smart develops into a better playmaker, hopefully Turner becomes expendable and the Celtics can begin to phase him out of their offense. If the Celtics could then either flip Sully or Olynyk for an established small forward, the Celtics would improve drastically.

Both Marco Belinelli and Wesley Johnson were available at the beginning of free agency and would’ve been perfect additions. The Celtics younger SFs, James Young and R.J. Hunter (they’re listed as SGs but the two positions are interchangeable in Stevens’ system), are too inexperienced to warrant significant minutes at small forward. Thus, if the Celtics are hoping to claim more than just an eight seed, they’ll need to pull the trigger on any deal which would reduce their number of power forwards on the roster.

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