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Boston Celtics – Cleveland Cavaliers First Round Playoff Preview

By Timmy Sclafani

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The Boston Celtics have looked stellar since the All-Star Break and they are being rewarded with the 7th seed in the Eastern Conference for the NBA playoffs. The problem with this reward is that it has earned them a date with the Eastern Conference title favorites, the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Apr 12, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) waves to the fans as his team takes on the Boston Celtics in the second half at TD Garden. The Celtics defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers 117-78. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

In Boston, there was a general consensus that if the Celtics could squeak into the 8th seed and face the Atlanta Hawks, it would be a better fate than facing Cleveland in the first round.

While that may still be true, I think some of the fear around the Cavs is starting to fade away in Boston. This may be partially because the Celtics just beat Cleveland twice in a row over the weekend, tying their season series at 2-2. It’s a mistake to gain too much confidence from these numbers, however, since the Cavs were far from full-throttle in these games.

Regardless, there is still reason to believe that the Celtics could steal a couple games from LeBron and the Cavaliers. Since February 2, Cleveland and Boston have the two best records in the Eastern Conference. In that time, the Cavaliers went 22-9 while the Celtics finished 23-12. Since acquiring star-sixth man Isaiah Thomas, the Celtics have been rolling. Let’s take a look at some of the key matchups we are most likely to see in this series.

Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart vs. Kyrie Irving, J.R. Smith

It’s tough to predict exactly how Stevens is going to play this one. From a purely height standpoint, Bradley would take Kyrie while Marcus Smart would take J.R. Smith. With that in mind, it could easily go the other way.

Mar 3, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Kyrie Irving (2) dribbles against Boston Celtics guard Avery Bradley (0) in the second quarter at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

As of late, it has been working best to have Marcus Smart guard the point guard and hound him from the half court line to the hoop, while Avery Bradley focuses on guarding the perimeter (especially important against a guy like J.R. Smith). With this matchup, Bradley could effectively take J.R. Smith out of the game.

Kyrie will surely give Smart fits if that is how the matchup plays out. Smart has no post-season experience, and he definitely isn’t used to his man putting up 30 points on national TV. The key to this is Marcus Smart keeping his emotions in check. It will fall on Brad Stevens, Avery Bradley, and other leaders on the team like Brandon Bass, to keep Smart under control if things aren’t going well.

Tyler Zeller vs. Timofey Mozgov

Both Zeller and Mozgov look like totally different players than they did at the start of the year. Mozgov is an absolute beast, and on a good night he can hang with the best of the big men. Zeller has a more unique skill set than a pure center, but he has been playing the position extremely well throughout this season. I would say Zeller actually outplayed Mozgov in both of the Celtics wins over the last weekend.

Apr 10, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Boston Celtics center Tyler Zeller (44) shoots against Cleveland Cavaliers center Timofey Mozgov (20) in the second quarter at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Mozgov may have filled the Cavs needs at center, with Varajao out for the season, but I think Zeller has the bigger impact on his team. Sometimes Zeller seems like the only guy who can hit a shot when the Celtics get cold mid-game. Statistically, the players are pretty similar. However, Mozgov typically plays about 3-4 minutes more per game than Zeller. I would expect to see their minutes even out in this playoff series since Zeller’s replacement, Kelly Olynyk, can’t defend Mozgov.

Brandon Bass vs. Kevin Love

If this matchup works out this way, it could be one that burns the Celtics. Kevin Love has been finding his groove in this second half of the season, and his skill set is quite different than that of Brandon Bass. Bass is more of a low-post, mid-range jumper forward, while Kevin Love is very versatile with his ability to post-up, shoot 3’s, and drive to the hoop.

Bass is solid defensively, especially in the paint, but he isn’t particularly fast or effective at guarding the perimeter. If the Celtics can get Bass the ball in the paint, he will have the advantage over Kevin Love.

Apr 10, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Boston Celtics forward Brandon Bass (30) drives against Cleveland Cavaliers forward Kevin Love (0) in the first quarter at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Love isn’t a weak defender, but he isn’t particularly strong and Bass can make him pay with his ability to score down low. In the end, however, Love is just the superior player, and Brad Stevens will need to find an answer for him if he wants to win any games in this series.

Jae Crowder, Evan Turner vs. LeBron James

This is very obviously Cleveland’s largest advantage. The Celtics do not have an adequate answer to the best basketball player in the world. Boston did a decent job of shutting him down in their second to last game against the Cavs, but it was an inconsequential game for Cleveland and LeBron played limited minutes. In LeBron’s three games against the Celtics he has averaged 27.3 points per game, and the scary part is, that wasn’t even Playoff LeBron; a whole new monster.

Mar 3, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) drives against Boston Celtics guard Evan Turner (11) in the first quarter at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Despite LeBron’s point totals, Crowder and Turner have actually done a decent job of limiting LeBron. Crowder is a hustle defender who, although he is outmatched, does everything he can to keep up with The King.

Evan Turner isn’t Boston’s best defender, and he is undersized and under-qualified to be matched up with the likes of LeBron, but he has done a decent job holding him this year on the offensive end of the court, LeBron might not be able to stop Turner’s surprising offensive output. Even if LeBron stops Turner from scoring, he hopefully won’t be able to stop all of the 8.4 assists Turner has averaged in the month of April.

Sixth Man/Bench

Clear advantage Celtics. Isaiah Thomas gave this team an identity and a pulse following the 2015 trade deadline. In April Isaiah averaged 25 minutes a game, coming off the bench, with 19.3 points per game and 5.6 assists. In fact, Thomas’ numbers per 36 minutes and per 100 possessions are actually quite comparable to that of Kyrie Irving. The only deficiency Thomas has is on the defensive end of the court, but the other Celtics guards should be able to compensate for this.

Apr 12, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Celtics guard Isaiah Thomas (4) shoots against Cleveland Cavaliers center Timofey Mozgov (20) in the second half at TD Garden. The Celtics defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers 117-78. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Tristan Thompson has had quite a solid season, averaging 7.5 points and 7 rebounds in 20 minutes per game. However, the Cavs are basically expected to ride their starters into the ground, so Thompson might not see a ton of minutes. This gives the Celtics the ability to potentially wear down the likes of Irving, James, Love, Smith, and Mozgov.

Cleveland is clearly a team that relies heavily on its starters, while the Celtics distribute their minutes more evenly among 10-or-so players. If the Celtics’ bench unit, fronted by Isaiah Thomas, can hang in there with Cleveland’s starting 5, they could stretch the series out. Cleveland’s bench unit clearly can’t be trusted based on last Sunday’s dominant victory by the Celtics.

Coaching

Coaching is the most significant advantage that the Celtics hold. Brad Stevens has proved again and again this season that he should be considered in the talks for Coach of the Year. Stevens not only calls genius plays out of the huddle, leading to numerous game-winning shots this season, he also adjusts lineups brilliantly when things aren’t clicking on the court.

Stevens also has a way of exploiting other coaches and teams weaknesses, which has to make you think that in a multi-game series he is going to find a way to win AT LEAST one game.

David Blatt is a solid coach in his own right. However, it took him until the second half of the season to get his team under control. Additionally, he shares a considerable amount of coaching duties with…LeBron James, a player on his team. LeBron James might be the greatest basketball player in the world, but he is far from proven as a coach or tactician. Even if the Celtics are getting being out played, Stevens will be one step ahead of Blatt from the sidelines throughout the series.

Apr 12, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Celtics head coach Brad Stevens watches from the sideline as they take on the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second half at TD Garden. The Celtics defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers 117-78. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

There is no question that the Cleveland Cavaliers have the better starting line-up, and the more talented and skilled squad. Any of the big 3 on Cleveland would immediately become the number one scoring option in Boston. With that said, the Boston Celtics have the tools to win at least one or two games in this series. The Celtics main advantages are their defense-oriented front court (Bradley and Smart), their sixth man Isaiah Thomas and the bench unit that he leads, and, of course, Brad Stevens’ other-worldly coaching ability.

Maybe I just can’t see through my homer-goggles, but I see the Celtics winning either Game 3 or 4 in Boston, and one game in Cleveland. I think the series will go to Game 6, where Cleveland will win decisively. That’s much more than anyone expected from this Boston team at the start of the year, and the season has already been an absolute success in my book.

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