NBA.com recently published its annual survey of the league's general managers. Among the 48 questions they answered, without being able to vote for their team or personnel, was which player is most likely to have a breakout season in 2026-27. They pointed to a group that included Payton Pritchard.
There are two reasons they're right. First, with Jaylen Brown gone, he will get more opportunities. The fiery guard had the third-highest usage rate on the Boston Celtics last postseason. Now, he'll have the ball in his hands more.
Secondly, last year's leap was driven by his scoring. Now, he is poised to have a greater impact as a facilitator. His performance in Boston's 114-93 preseason victory vs. the Charlotte Hornets offered a preview. Pritchard dished out 11 assists. With the defense trying to limit his scoring in the paint, he routinely found an open teammate. He's turning those paint touches into pick-your-poison situations.
Why Payton Pritchard will average at least 20 points this season
It appears Jordan Walsh will start for the Celtics to open the 2026-27 campaign. Their starting lineup will remain fluid, though. Whether the 2024-25 Sixth Man of the Year starts or comes off the bench, he could be Boston's second-leading scorer this season.
Pritchard averaged 17.0 points per game last year. That was the third-most on the team. Now, he's angling to get to the free-throw line more. His quickness, ball-handling, and contact balance make him difficult to keep out of the paint. Now, he can apply his craftiness to get to the stripe more. He's a 90 percent free-throw shooter for his career, but he's taking fewer than 1.0 attempts per tilt.
He also figures to get more playing time alongside Jayson Tatum. They generated 46.1 points in 18.5 minutes together last season. Those two registered a 123.2 offensive rating. They're a nightmare for defenses to deal with.
If that tandem is conducting a pick-and-roll, the opposition is either conceding a clean look at a 3 or a path to the paint. They don't want to get detached from Tatum, and Pritchard's hard enough to stay in front of without the benefit of a screen. He scored the third-most isolation points per possession [minimum 60 games and an average of at least one such field-goal attempt] last year, per NBA.com. Even if he's a nearby kick-out option for the Celtics' star forward, it puts the defense in a sticky predicament. The former Oregon star is a lethal catch-and-shoot option with range that extends to the parking lot.
Don't sleep on Payton Pritchard's playmaking
In his sixth year in the Association, the six-foot-one guard distributed 5.2 assists per contest. He wants to make a greater impact as a passer this season. He has improved in that area throughout his career. But he's reached the point where this is more about utilizing another club in his bag than evolving.
In Wednesday's win against the Hornets, the 28-year-old's paint touches drew extra attention. Pritchard used it to produce points for others. He made quick decisions on the perimeter, getting the ball to open shooters. And he made unselfish decisions. The prime example was when he passed up an open 3 to swing the rock to Baylor Scheierman in the corner. With Moussa Diabate contesting from behind and Brandon Miller sprinting toward him, he turned a good shot into a great one.
No one will appreciate Pritchard's next playmaking leap more than his teammates. It's also part of the more dynamic version of him that rightfully put the Celtics' guard on NBA GMs' list of breakout candidates this season.
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