Whether the Celtics are closer to winning a title after the big offseason changes is up for debate, but one thing that’s not is that Jayson Tatum is set up to have the best season of his career and build a very strong MVP case. Obviously, this relies on JT’s health, but assuming he’s ready to hit the ground running and play in 70+ games this season, the stars are aligning.
In terms of stats, the runway is clear with Jaylen Brown out of town. Tatum can have the highest usage of his career, and with everything running through him, there’s no reason he can’t set career highs across the board. Could he average something like 30 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assists per game? I don’t see any reason why not.
Celtics' roster set up for Tatum explosion
The roster is set up around him to maximize his strengths and allow him to thrive as a scorer and a distributor. Throw in the fact that he’ll surely grade out as one of the best defenders in the league, and you’re looking at a pretty compelling case.
Then, we can take a look at the narrative element of the award. After the JB trade, everyone is expecting Boston to take a step back, but the team is clearly better than it was at this time a year ago, and with JT in Brown’s spot, if nothing else, they should be a regular season juggernaut. If the Celtics can win 55+ games and get a one or two seed in a loaded East, they’ll be getting lots of love, and Tatum will be the unquestioned focal point.
Tatum MVP would be straight out of Hollywood
Beyond that, you’ve got the injury narrative, which shouldn’t really play a factor in something like MVP voting, but let’s be real - the voters are humans. They fall for narratives, and it’s hard to think of a much better storyline than Tatum coming back from his achilles tear to have the best season of his career and lead the Celtics to a massively successful season where they overachieve without a second star.
And if you need more proof, we can literally just look at what happened last season when Brown was essentially in Tatum’s role. He led the Celtics to 56 wins, and even with some very questionable advanced stats, efficiency metrics, and defense, he finished 6th in MVP voting just a few months ago.
No matter what you think of the trade or the team’s playoff equity this season, there’s absolutely no reason to think Tatum can’t replicate what Brown just did with better efficiency, defense, playmaking, and rebounding - just as he has every single season of his career. Plus, now that Brown isn’t there to take up so much usage, the runway is clear for Tatum to explode in a way we’ve never even seen.
Tatum's competition will face voter fatigue
Finally, we’ve got to look around at the potential competition. Voter fatigue is real. It already came for Nikola Jokic, and it’s about to come for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as well. Victor Wembanyama is the clear favorite, but the expectations are massive, and we’ll see how motivated he actually is to hit the 65-game mark after turning down the contract incentives related to awards.
There are certainly other contenders like Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Cade Cunningham, just to name a few. But every possible candidate has things working for and against them. But Tatum mostly just has things working in his favor.
There’s still a lot that can go wrong and a lot that can get in the way, but sitting here in August, it’s safe to say that for a guy who has finished in the top six on four separate occasions, Jayson Tatum has never had a clearer path to winning the MVP Award.
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