It has been wild to watch the Jalen Duren saga play out in Detroit as the team risks losing their 22-year-old All-NBA center because he’s not interested in their five-year, $200 million offer, and it seems the relationship between the franchise and player may be broken beyond repair.
It’s easy to say the Pistons are playing a dangerous game, but the reality of the situation is that it would be even more dangerous and potentially damaging to dish out a giant, long-term contract and risk a massive overpay. In this CBA, with the second apron functioning as a sort of hard cap, managing every single dollar the team spends is more important than ever.
And while Duren is a very good player, he’s far from elite. And in the modern NBA, paying top dollar for any big man that’s not in the top tier is a massive mistake. Bill Simmons laid it out perfectly on a recent podcast with Kirk Goldsberry, as he said that the only centers worth a max in the current league economy are Nikola Jokic and Victor Wembanyama, guys who have completely redefined the position.
Duren is far from that, and paying him $40 million or more a season would be extremely crippling for the team as they try to build out a championship-caliber roster around him, Cade Cunningham, and Ausar Thompson going forward.
Celtics getting similar production for a fraction of the cost
Then on the other side of the coin, you’ve got a team like the Celtics. Boston has invested in guys who will likely never be All-Stars, but are great in their roles, fit the team’s scheme perfectly on both ends, and complement each other: Neemias Queta, Mitchell Robinson, and Luka Garza.
This season, Robinson will make just over $15 million, Garza just over $2.8 million, and Queta about $2.67 million. That’s under $21 million for 48 minutes a night of very good center play - an absolute bargain. Even next season, when Queta’s contract extension kicks in and Garza hits free agency, Boston will be on the hook for roughly $28 million between Neemy and Mitch, with youngsters Amari Williams and Chris Cenac Jr. waiting in the wings on rookie deals (a two-way in Williams’ case).
And unless you have a generational talent like Joker or Wemby, that’s exactly how you should handle the position. The way the game is played these days, if a guy can’t do everything at a high level on both ends, he just isn’t worth it. We see it all over the league, and lots of teams are now weighed down with anchor contracts to big men who just aren’t on that level.
It looks like the Pistons may be the next team to fall into that trap, and while they likely won’t regret having Duren on the team, they will probably regret his contract when they’re paying double what the Celtics are for similar production.
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