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Upcoming lottery reform should only improve Celtics' chances of landing Giannis

The new lottery system in the NBA is forcing teams to be much more guarded with their future draft capital
 Oct. 19, 2021; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) watches as the the Milwaukee Bucks' 2021 championship banner is unveiled with his Championship ring during Milwaukee Bucks ring ceremony; Mand atory credit: Mike De Sisti-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Oct. 19, 2021; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) watches as the the Milwaukee Bucks' 2021 championship banner is unveiled with his Championship ring during Milwaukee Bucks ring ceremony; Mand atory credit: Mike De Sisti-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images | Milwaukee Journal Sentinel-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

While there’s a steady stream of reporting coming in suggesting that the Celtics aren’t serious players in the Giannis sweepstakes, that’s certainly subject to change. The Bucks are open for business, and at this point, they are likely going to try to do whatever is best for the organization’s future.

At the same time, that’s going to be a lot easier said than done, because Antetokounmpo has just one year left on his deal and will be expecting a new extension from whatever team trades for him. In other words, he’s going to have a lot of say in his next team, as he can make clear whether he’ll sign or not.

If he puts his thumb on the scale, it’s unlikely a team is going to give up a fortune without assurances that Giannis wants to be there and will sign that extension. Nobody is mortgaging their future for what could end up being a one-year rental.

Furthermore, teams are getting more reluctant to give up a haul in future draft picks thanks to the potential new lottery reform. According to Jake Fischer, the flattened odds are causing teams to cling to their picks, as no one wants to end up giving away the #1 overall pick in the draft down the road.

Celtics may be able to get Giannis for discount

That’s the kind of move that could blow up in a team’s face and ruin an entire era for a franchise that foolishly gets overambitious and chases a star via trade. We’ve seen teams throw around draft picks with teams surrendering years and years of draft capital for Kevin Durant, Mikal Bridges, Desmond Bane, and others.

Those moves are clearly weighing on the minds of front offices as they prepare to make bids for Giannis and other stars. At this point, it seems unlikely that any team will sacrifice multiple first-round picks with the league on the verge of adopting a lottery format that will give more than half the league a chance at the top picks.

Ultimately, this could be great news for the Celtics. If they do decide to pivot and make a run at Giannis, they have the matching salary and star power to get there between Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Sam Hauser, and others. Their picks aren’t particularly appealing to Milwaukee, but if other teams are hesitant to go all-in, Boston may be able to steal the Greek Freak with a relatively low-ball offer.

The Bucks may not like it, but that’s the new reality of this lottery system. If teams aren’t confident that Giannis wants to be there and that his presence will ensure they’ll stay out of the lottery, they aren’t going to risk it. And that could be great news for the Celtics.

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