Jayson Tatum's potential return to the Boston Celtics this season has only gained steam with each passing day. One possible giveaway has been the quick releases of new episodes of his miniseries, "The Quiet Work," which have been coming out not too far apart.
Tatum just released the penultimate episode of the series earlier today, only two days after releasing the second and third episodes on Monday. Nothing is set in stone until it is, but it feels like, before he comes back, Tatum wants the entire series out before he returns to the court.
There's only one episode left.
Tatum has been ruled out for the Celtics' game against the Charlotte Hornets tonight, but if that last episode gets released before their game against the Dallas Mavericks on Friday, expect a lot of eyeball emojis on social media.
The Celtics have been phenomenal without him, but everyone has been anticipating his return anyway. When he does, the question will be what percentage of his old self will be there when he does?
Boston has dealt with previous stars coming off serious injuries, and in fact, two of them set the ceiling and floor for when Tatum returns.
Best-case scenario for Tatum: 2010 Kevin Garnett
Many remember Kevin Garnett's imprint on the Celtics from 2007 to 2013, but many forget that lone season where he didn't quite look like himself.
Garnett's second season in Boston was sadly cut short because of a knee injury. More than that, it was the first time in Garnett's career that he had to miss extensive time. Garnett was locked and loaded for his third year in Boston after getting offseason surgery, but it was clear that he didn't have quite the same burst he did before he got hurt.
Garnett was one of the most athletic big men the NBA had ever seen, let alone in his era, so if he looked a step slow, it was hard not to notice, and back then, it was easy to see in real time. While still a great player, he wasn't quite as physically dominant as he once was.
Now, that didn't stop him from making the All-Star team, nor did it really get in the way of the Celtics' title aspirations, as they came within inches of Banner 18 that year. However, anyone who watched that season could tell KG didn't look quite right. Pau Gasol notoriously harped on this during the 2010 NBA Finals.
One could argue that he was getting older on top of coming off an injury, but his play in the next season proved that wasn't the case. Garnett looked a hell of a lot more like his old self. He looked noticeably more explosive across the board, proving that his ailment simply needed more reps to fully recover.
It's likely Tatum too won't be as explosive at first, but if he shows shades of 2010 KG, that's a win for Boston with how good the team has been.
Worst-case scenario for Tatum: 2019 Gordon Hayward
Like Garnett, many were excited to see the Celtics, a team that was one win away from the NBA Finals, add an All-Star in his prime back in Gordon Hayward. Sure, he suffered one of the most traumatizing injuries in the history of sports, but enough time had passed that even if he didn't look like the Utah Jazz version of Gordon Hayward, he'd still be a solid contributor.
Nope.
Basketball is not played in a vacuum, and it was clear throughout the season that Hayward was not close to what he was. He had his occasional outbursts, but they were few and far between.
Hayward's struggles weren't just physical, but mental. The only way to work him back was through the reps, and unfortunately, he was on the one NBA team that did not have reps to give him. The talent was still there, but the confidence definitely wasn't.
It wouldn't be shocking if Tatum, too, struggles with confidence, and it will be hard not to notice as he's incorporated into a team that's been spectacular without him, which sounds similar to Hayward's predicament seven years ago.
No matter what, don't be too concerned for Tatum out of the gate
The prospect of Tatum coming back in a season where the Celtics have been among the elites is exciting, but it's typical for NBA players coming off devastating injuries to need a minute before they start looking like themselves again.
Garnett and Hayward certainly did. The commonality between them was that, by the next season, they looked like their old selves again. Even if Tatum looks like 2019 Hayward (or potentially worse), this coming fall, it should be a different story.
If Tatum immediately looks like the old Tatum, that's among the biggest miracles the NBA has ever seen. While it shouldn't be ruled out, Celtics fans need to keep expectations in check until further notice.