Coming into this season, the expectations were understandably low for the Celtics. They were projected to be around a .500 team; maybe good enough to sneak into the playoffs if everything went right, and maybe looking at a top 5 pick if everything went wrong (depending on your point of view, I suppose).
But obviously, that hasn’t been the case at all, and the team has performed so well that fans are dreaming of chasing a championship. But as the playoffs have approached and that dream has become a reality, it has become impossible not to see some of the flaws that may be on display come playoff time.
As hard as the Celtics have played in the regular season, the only way a title is realistic is if the Celtics get Jayson Tatum back. And get him back they will, as all signs point to his season debut coming on Friday, at home against the Mavericks. It couldn’t come at a better time, as there was a very specific scenario that had to play out for this to even make sense, and somehow, it has.
The Celtics had a lot of boxes to check to put themselves in this position. For one, they had to be in the playoff hunt, which they are. Not only that, they’re sitting at 41-21, holding a two-game lead for the two seed in the East. They’re in a position where they can slowly ease JT along and let him play his way back to full(ish) strength without having to worry about winning these final 20 games.
Obviously, it would be nice to keep the two seed, but that pales in comparison to the importance of having Tatum close to fully operational and the team clicking come playoff time. The Celtics have an 8-game cushion on the seven seed, which would mean slipping into the play-in tournament.
Cs can afford to bring Tatum along slowly without sacrificing seeding
As long as the Cs make the dance, they’ll be in good shape, and now they have the luxury of letting Tatum get as comfortable as possible, while almost certainly securing a top-4 seed; a dream scenario.
Furthermore, Tatum has the perfect runway to ramp up for the next 20 games. He can come along slowly, take plenty of rest days, and get a chance to experience a little bit of everything between now and the team’s final game of the regular season on April 12th. He’ll have the chance to really ramp up and push it just enough so that he’s feeling good and ready to go up another level for the playoffs after a week off for the play-in.
Getting 10-20 games under his belt is going to be absolutely massive for getting the rust off and reacclimating to the league and his teammates. If he were coming back much later, it would seem a lot riskier to push him quickly into playoff-level basketball. But instead, he has over a month of the regular season before he needs to crank it up to the highest gear.
It’s still going to take an awful lot for everything to click together and the Celtics to win the 2026 championship, but they’ve unquestionably put themselves in a position where it’s a realistic conversation. And that, in itself, is pretty damn amazing.