Many media members, fans, and NBA players complain about the league’s strenuous schedule each year. Qualms like “There are too many games!” or “There are too many back-to-backs!” reverberate around the hoops sphere quite often. While those gripes are justified, largely because of the amount of wear-and-tear injuries in the NBA, more rest doesn’t necessarily translate to better play.
This last week of Boston Celtics basketball serves as a prime example. Boston dropped their second straight game Monday, falling to the Detroit Pistons, 112-105. The home loss was only the team’s second game in seven nights. The other was a disappointing defeat at the hands of the Milwaukee Bucks last Thursday.
These back-to-back losses come on the heels of the Celtics’ longest winning streak of the season, where they won five straight. Those five wins happened to come in a whirlwind of a week, too.
Their break after last Sunday’s win over the Toronto Raptors was more days (three) than the total rest days during the winning streak (two).
They can thank the NBA Cup for that. When the league releases the upcoming schedule in mid August, they leave a week wide open in early December for flexiblity for the knockout stages. They also love the added attention their newest competition gets during this span, without a doubt.
Celtics have struggled shooting in their last two games
Some people, I’m not going to name names (it was me), thought that some rest would do the Cs some good. They’d been playing and traveling quite a bit, and would benefit from a few days off, right?
Wrong.
As Derrick White explained before Monday’s loss, the break is two-fold.
“It’s been nice, and it’s been weird,” White told reporters at pregame shootaround via CLNS Media. “I was sitting around yesterday like, ‘I feel like we haven’t played much lately.’ So it’s different, especially during the season when you expect [to play] every other day pretty much. It’s been definitely different having all this time off, but it’s been good for recovery, and we’ve been able to have some good practices in as well. There’s definitely some pros and cons to it all.”
There actually might only be cons. This extended period of rest may have killed all of the momentum the Celtics had built. The aforementioned five-game winning streak was part of a larger hot stretch, where Boston won 10 out of 12 games from Nov. 12 to Dec. 7.
During that stretch, the Cs made the most of their offensive opportunities. They shot 50.3% from the field and 41.2% from beyond the arc. There was a clear rhythm. It’s almost like if you’re running for distance, feeling good, and not tired at all, then have to stop at a crosswalk or something, and all of a sudden your body realizes it’s tired. You’re no longer in the zone.
NBA Cup break is the Celtics’ crosswalk -- or perhaps any break is
They’ve struggled to put the ball in the basket over these past two games, making just 42.4% of their attempts overall and 27.3% of their threes. Those splits simply aren’t good enough to win at a high level.
For what it’s worth, two games is an extremely small sample size. This could just be a hiccup, and the Celtics could get rolling again this weekend when they resume play.
Joe Mazzulla credited the team’s offensive process, despite Monday’s loss, explaining that they’d improved from the disastrous second half last Thursday.
“Nothing else is more important than that, regardless of if they're going in or not, to make it the right read,” Mazzulla said of the number of open misses against the Pistons. “I thought we did that for the majority of the game. And I thought there were obviously possessions that we can get better.”
Their struggles after longer rest periods, however, look to be more of a trend. This season, Boston is 1-2 coming off of two days' rest, and 1-3 on three or more days' rest. Their true shooting percentage takes a hit, too. It dips below the season average of 58.4%, to 56.9% and 54.6% respectively.
On the contrary, opponents’ efficiency has shown an inverse trajectory. The more days the Celtics have off, the higher opposing teams shoot. For perspective, the season true shooting percentage for the opposition sits at 57.5%. It jumps to 59.3% with a two-day break and 61.3% after three or more days.
This could be a coincidence, shooting luck, worse defense, or a combination of the three. Regardless, it’s a trend. The more rest the Celtics have, the less reliable they become.
Thankfully, this is the NBA -- a league where everyone complains about the schedule being too tight. There won’t be many more stretches that see the Cs playing this few games for the rest of the season.