By now, it seems like most neutral observers have reached the point where they believe that if Jayson Tatum is already practicing and scrimmaging 5-on-5, he’s going to come back this season. But nothing has been made official either way, and although he appears to be progressing well, there’s no public timeline for a return.
Nobody is declaring themselves a doctor or anything, but most media members and fans with an opinion believe that Tatum should come back as soon as he’s ready, and that it’s going to be this season, likely within the next few weeks.
But as a possible season debut feels closer and realer than ever, we’re starting to see some pushback and hesitancy. Doctors have thrown caution to the wind, explaining how tricky this particular injury can be and how difficult it is to come back at 100%.
And not everyone in the media is convinced either. On a recent episode of The Big Number, Tom Haberstroh and his guest, Brian Windhorst, broke down the Tatum situation, and Tom expressed that he’s nervous about a return this season.
The history of players returning early from achilles surgery isn't great
They delved into the history of comebacks from this injury and mentioned how the early returners had trouble, while the success stories belonged to guys who took more than a year off. Kobe Bryant was a prime example of someone who came back after just 8 months, but lasted just six games before suffering another injury.
Elton Brand came back after 10 months, and his career was never the same. Meanwhile, the gold standard for this scenario is Kevin Durant, who returned to MVP-caliber form and is still going strong in his late 30s, having sat out more than 18 months with his torn achilles.
Tom and Windy tried to think of an example of a player returning early from this surgery and everything going well, and they weren’t immediately able to think of a name.Â
A lot has changed with medical advancements, and even with this particular operation. Tatum was also able to get the surgery immediately and has been attacking his rehab with an absurd vigor. He was also a peak physical specimen at age 27. There are reasons to believe he can be an outlier who is able to return successfully, earlier than past cases.
But still, this is uncharted territory, and there’s a lot on the line. The most important thing is for Tatum to return to 100% of the player he was and continue leading the Celtics for the rest of this decade. Whether that begins this season, next season, or even multiple seasons from now, that’s the top priority, and it’s not something to play around with.