The mistake is getting hung up on a prediction. The several potential paths for how and when Anfernee Simons's tenure with the Boston Celtics ends all have merit.
However, for those who love to play armchair GM and those simply curious about Brad Stevens's assessment, the Celtics' president of basketball operations shared his evaluation of how Simons has fared while acclimating to Boston.
"Yeah, I think he's really trying," said Stevens. "He's a quiet guy, but just a super person, and so he's really come in with a great mindset: 'I'm going to help the team any way I can. And offensively, he knows he's capable of going nuts in any given game. But then defensively, I've just been really impressed, like, he's picked up, he's made it hard. I think he's made great strides in the months he's been here on that end. And I'm a big fan. I like him a lot."
The cases for and against the Celtics keeping Anfernee Simons
The seventh-year guard could play out this season in Boston. That would give the franchise a year to evaluate the fit of a player well-suited for the role of sixth man. It would allow Simons time to go from adapting to showcasing what he can do once acclimated.
Some will say they've seen enough. Perhaps the Celtics have too. The financials are another significant factor. The 26-year-old is on an expiring, $27.7 million contract. He spent the previous two years averaging over 20 points as the Portland Trail Blazers' primary offensive option. For a player of his scoring prowess, entering the free-agent market in his athletic prime, whatever haircut his salary is in for, it could still reach a figure Boston believes it's best not to bid.
What's clear is that the organization is not under a mandate to dip below the luxury tax. They're about $12 million over that threshold. The most realistic paths to accomplish that would include trading Simons. However, the priority is doing what's best for the franchise on the court, not on the balance sheet. If the Celtics believe keeping him is the right move, then he's not going anywhere.
Perhaps that would even lead to getting to see him play alongside Jayson Tatum. The six-time All-Star's potential return this season was another topic Stevens addressed Wednesday.
Tatum and Simons could mesh nicely, helping alleviate some of the offensive burden from a player returning from a torn Achilles tendon. Beyond that, the latter would slot in nicely as a sixth man on a championship contender.
That he's buying in defensively and fitting into the environment of a team that places a premium on its culture also helps the case for him sticking around.
If he does get dealt, it's a chance to fortify the center position, likely while trimming payroll. Maybe the Los Angeles Clippers come around on trading Ivica Zubac before February's deadline. However, this author is skeptical about that. Still, there are other targets Boston could set its sights on.
When sizing it all up, the odds are against Simons sticking around long term. People have defied more improbable chances, though.