It’s remarkable to think of all the brilliant trades Brad Stevens and the Celtics have pulled off in recent years without sacrificing major draft capital. But they didn’t escape completely scot-free, and they do have some coming debts to pay, which was the cost of acquiring their 2024 championship backcourt (a very fair and modest price to pay, if we’re being honest).
The Celtics traded to acquire Derrick White from the Spurs at the 2022 trade deadline, and one of the assets going back to San Antonio was a 2028 first-round pick swap, protected only for the first overall pick.
Then, in the 2023 offseason, after the Bucks traded for Damian Lillard, the Cs were able to swoop in and snag Jrue Holiday away from the Trail Blazers, a deal which included Boston’s 2029 first-round pick, unprotected.
Again, both deals were well worth it, and ultimately, a small price to pay to add White and Holiday, but with the recent changes to the NBA Draft Lottery, they do carry a bit more risk than they did at the time of the deals.
Spurs' pick almost guaranteed to convey
The pick swap owed to the Spurs seems almost certain to convey, but this has nothing to do with the lottery. The Spurs won 62 games this season, and Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, and others are 22 and under, and this team may have the best record in the league for years to come. No matter how good Boston is, it’s going to be tough to have a better record than the Spurs two seasons from now.
Celtics risk losing premium asset as fringe playoff team
The changes to the pick value have to do with the end of the lottery. With the new flattened odds, the lottery now goes all the way to 16, with all 16 picks being drawn. The loser of the 7-8 play-in game is getting into the picture. The other play-in losers will have a better chance as well, and the bottom-3 teams are punished, while teams 4-10 all have the same odds.
That means if the Celtics take a step back for whatever reason or have a down year, there’s suddenly a real chance that they could send a top 5 or 10 pick to the Spurs or Blazers. They have their pick next year, but for the following two seasons, if the Celtics have a disaster season, sort of like they did in 2020-21, they could be in trouble.
Winning a championship is the goal of this sport, and thanks in large part to these two trades, the Celtics did that. But if things go wrong in the next couple of seasons and the Celtics ping-pong balls have some lottery luck, Boston may be gifting a generational prospect to an ascending team out west.
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