I don’t think anyone in Celtics Nation was expecting the team to go out and target Paul George this offseason, and the sentiment among fans certainly wasn’t very positive. But the more you dig into the fit and some of the underlying metrics, the more this move makes sense, as long as PG can stay healthy and on the court.
For all of Jaylen Brown’s offensive strengths, he was never much better than an average shooter from everywhere on the floor. He would pass up threes for midrange shots, and although he made a lot of incredibly difficult shots, that wasn’t exactly great for the offense.
George, on the other hand, may not bludgeon his way to the basket nearly as often or score with nearly the same volume, but the guy is a knockdown shooter in every way. He shot 39.6% on open threes last season, and he should see a lot more of those this year.
Along with pedestrian shooting numbers, Brown was a very underwhelming pick-and-roll initiator, especially for his volume. For contrast, George, with much less volume, was a maestro operating as the handler in PNR situations, even having the third-highest points per possession in those actions during the playoffs (Payton Pritchard was also fourth…there’s a them here).
Celtics’ pick-and-roll game should be a cheat code
We obviously know that the Celtics love to shoot threes, but they also love to crash the offensive glass. They now have three centers who are excellent screen setters and offensive rebounders. Some fans may not want to hear it, but a big part of the team’s offense is going to be pick-and-rolls that lead to pull-up threes.
And they have the perfect personnel for that. George shot a ridiculous 68.2% on pull-up threes in the playoffs, which led the NBA by far (Pritchard was 8th at 42.3%). Neemias Queta, Mitchell Robinson, and Luka Garza are going to set powerful screens for those guys on the perimeter and roll hard to the rim, leaving defenses in impossible situations.
If the opponents’ big men choose to drop back, they are allowing deadeye shooters to walk into easy threes. If they switch or hedge out to the perimeter, they are giving Boston’s big men free rein to crash the glass with an empty paint and create extra possessions if the Celtics actually miss.
This is where the Celtics can create massive advantages and dominate the possession battle. Brown’s game wasn’t fully leaning into these advantages, and for all the numbers he put up in Boston, there’s a very real chance that the offense is able to hit an even higher ceiling with the personnel changes this offseason.
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