The Celtics have finally leaned into a strategy I’ve been advocating for, for years, and the results have been eye-opening. What I’ve been preaching, mostly on my podcast, is that when it comes to big men, you either want to be fully invested or not at all. If we’re talking about one of the true game-changers like Jokic, Wembanyama, or Embiid a few years ago, by all means, pay top dollar for elite production at the position.
But if you can’t get a top-tier guy, you’re better off punting on the position than overpaying for the middle of the pack. The drop off from Jokic and Wemby to the next tier is significant, and the drop off to the middle of the pack is massive, but the drop off from there to the minimum guys doesn’t seem that large.
Boston may have stumbled into this situation partly by luck. They needed to trim their salary bill, which meant getting off one big-money center via trade, while allowing Luke Kornet and Al Horford to sign elsewhere. Everyone assumed that Brad Stevens would be aggressive to replace the lost frontcourt production, but instead, the Cs went into the season with just minimum contract players at the position, Neemias Queta and Luka Garza.
They scouted talent and fit and found guys who were underutilized, that they’ve brought in and developed to mesh with the system. And the results have been incredible.
Celtics getting above average play from minimum contract centers
Queta has been a revelation, giving the Celtics very good starting center minutes all season, while Garza has been a rock-solid backup. The savings have allowed the Cs to focus their resources elsewhere, into more premium positions on the wing and in the backcourt.
Now they have a very good and very deep team, and they’ve done it by trusting their scouting and development to make up the financial gap in spending at center. They bet on themselves, and they’ve won that bet. It has become a strategy in fantasy sports: you’ll often hear that when drafting by position, you want to be first or last. It’s a common refrain for quarterbacks and tight ends because the top guys make a difference, but after that, it gets fairly flat.
The Cs have been one of the first teams to realize this when it comes to the center position, and they’ve taken advantage. Once you get past the very top centers, you see contracts that immediately make you recoil. Look at Domantas Sabonis making $42.3 million this season, Nic Claxton making $25.4 million, Myles Turner at $25.3 million, and others in that range.
Are any of those players better than Neemy? Certainly not $20+ million worth of production better. And that’s the point. Boston is able to employ two of the best two-way wings in the world at top dollar while keeping Derrick White on a market value deal. Yet, the roster is still very good, and that’s while currently living under the luxury tax.
Overpaying in this CBA is a death sentence
That even includes taking on over $20 million in expiring money for their new backup center, Nikola Vucevic. And it’s all because of resource management, specifically at the center position. Now, the Cs deserve a ton of credit. It’s not like any team can just grab any vet minimum big man and plug him into their lineup and assume they’ll get league-average production or better.
But Boston has the front office to pull it off, and they’ve proven it again and again. On a recent episode of the Game Theory Podcast, Sam Vecenie and Bryce Simon discussed this new hack and mentioned how the Hornets have had similar success with Moussa Diabate and Ryan Kalkbrenner this season. They’re seeing great results with a minimum guy and a 2nd-round rookie, and it’s opening up lots of possibilities for them, both this year and going forward.
The smarter teams will catch on and try to replicate this success, but it’s not that easy. Like usual, the Celtics are ahead of the curb and they can ride this advantage for the next few years before the league has fully adjusted and they’re forced to go find the next market inefficiency to exploit.