Five NBA games are roughly equivalent to one week in the NFL. Take 82, divide by 16, and you get about five. So, the five-game sample size that we’ve seen from the Boston Celtics, while small, is not nothing. You can actually start to identify trends, what’s real, and what’s not.
What have the Celtics taught us so far?
Let’s talk about it.
The Obvious
The most obvious stat of them all is Boston’s record: two wins, three losses. Their two wins have felt much different than the losses have, which seems like a given, but sometimes you walk away feeling like you just simply got unlucky. That hasn’t been the case here.
When the Celtics lost three straight to start the season, shooting and rebounding were two glaring issues.
Proven shooters like Derrick White and Payton Pritchard struggled and have continued to struggle even in the wins. The two have made just 25% and 18.9% of their three-point attempts, respectively. If the Celtics are going to reach their potential with this group, these two are going to have to start finding the bottom of the net from distance.
Meanwhile, they’ve been second-worst in the NBA in defensive rebounding percentage. Watching the Cs play 20+ seconds of good defense only to give up an offensive board is backbreaking stuff.
Thankfully, Boston has somewhat fixed their defensive rebounding problems. They’ve managed to outrebound both the New Orleans Pelicans and the Cleveland Cavaliers during their current two-game win streak (if you can even call it that). These two performances have them ranked 13th in dreb% across the two games, up nearly 7% above their season average.
Why Not Minott?
Josh Minott has played a huge role in that across his two starts. The former Minnesota Timberwolves forward averages 11.5 boards as a starter, filling a significant need for Boston. Someone always needed to fill the void left by Jayson Tatum, who averaged about 8.5 per game last season. Minott getting his numbers has been important, for sure, but how he’s gotten them has been even more impactful.
He rebounds in a similar fashion to Tatum, using his athleticism to fly towards the loose ball, rather than battling for positioning like most traditional centers do.
Honestly, Minott’s thrived in any opportunity that the Celtics have given him to this point. He rebounds, defends, and can score in low-usage situations. Awesome player.
Don’t Get Too Excited, But The Celtics Might Be Good.
This seems like a lot of lip service for a 2-3 team, but there’s been a lot to be excited about with this Celtics group, despite their flaws.
Starting at the top, Jaylen Brown has been incredibly efficient. He’s averaging a career-high 26.8 points per game while shooting career-highs from both the field at 52.2% and three at 46.9%.
It would be pretty unrealistic to expect Brown to uphold the extreme efficiency over an entire 82-game season, but this hot start is impressive, and it should be recognized.
The team as a whole has outperformed their record. They’re ranked seventh in the NBA with a net rating of 7.0 over these five games. Boston is the only team with a losing record to have cracked the top 20, which makes it even more surprising to see them all the way in the top seven.
Imagine, their net rating is seventh-best, even with the putrid shooting and rebounding of the first three matchups. Once water finds its level, the Celtics might actually be dangerous?
Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves.